THB #539: Is 19-Day VOD Poisoning The Entire Well?

Every time I think I am done with an issue for a while, they pull me back in!

Forest

After writing about The Fall Guy’s box office yesterday, I’m been triggered again by Universal announcing that The Fall Guy will be released on VOD tomorrow, 19 whole days after theatrical release.

The event of this should not be a surprise to me or anyone else. During COVID, Universal decided that they would send movies that open under $50 million domestic to VOD in 19 days (Tuesday after the 3rd weekend of release) and that movies opening over $50 million would get 33 days (Tuesday after the 5rd weekend of release).

I have always been of 2 minds on this strategy. First, I hate the idea that it infringes on the theatrical window in a way that cannot help but limit the box office. Second, I like the idea that at least Universal set up some rules for itself and offers some consistency, as I believe that inconsistency in the theatrical market, confusing potential ticket buyers, is a major problem.

Of course, it is shocking that the summer opened with such a mediocre number and that the summer opener will be on VOD before the end of May.

But at this point, 3 years into this policy, it has a history that can be analyzed. Universal has wide-released 48 films since COVID, starting with Freaky, on November 13, 2020.

4 films were released day-n-date with Peacock.

22 of 44 windowed films were pushed to VOD at 19 or 21 days, now including 3 of the 4 releases by the studio this year.

Half the titles saw a box office drop of 50% or more the weekend after VOD release. This includes Migration, which waited 65 days, Trolls Band Together (33 days), Fast X (25 days), M3GAN (49 days), The Bad Guys (61 days) and even Oppenheimer, though the Oscar-winner-to-be was down to $43k the weekend before the VOD, 4 months after release… dropping to $17k the next weekend.

All but one of the other films saw a drop of less than 50% in the weekend after VOD release… but box office almost always goes down weekend after weekend, so it’s hard to point fingers at those titles.

The odd film out for Universal is Minions: The Rise of Gru, which actually went up at the box office the weekend after its VOD release.

What is clear is that shortened windows, even moving to a paid-VOD offering (not subscription streaming), clearly affect the box office. So why do it so quickly?