This will be brief (for me) because I am repeating myself on this.
I understand that Anthony D'Alessandro is in Cannes, working hard. So this weekend, he just let Chris Aronson’s office write his box office column in Deadline. I mean, Anthony works his ass off, but at some point they are asking too much of anyone.
And yes, a projected $35 million domestic opening for IF is better than a big summer movie smashing into the rocks and utterly destroyed… like, say, opening the summer with a $27 million domestic gross.
That said, it is the 85th best opening in the month of May (87th best launch-of-summer, if you include the Marvel week-early April launches). All 20 of the May openers have opened better. All 40 Top 100 May openings launching on May 20 or later have opened better. In this couple of weekends in between, there are 26 of those Top 100 May openings. There are just a couple $100m+ openers in that period Shrek 3, Deadpool 2). And only 7 true originals: Deep Impact, Dinosaur, Shrek, Troy, Over The Hedge, Neighbors, and IF… the lowest grosser being the most recent.
Daddy Day Care opened worse… $28 million in 2003. It held and did almost 4x opening… so there is that. IF could do the same. I hope it does.
But here is the reason I am writing about this at all.
No one is doing anyone any favor by running an endless list of excuses for movies not opening. I am a deep and passionate believer in theatrical as a financially smart choice based on this rarely considered thing called, “math.” But when the response to every film that “underperforms expectations” - which are usually manipulated BS when it gets to the media anyway - is to cover the studio’s ass, it helps no one beyond those seeking instant gratification. For the record, it also undermines the industry when success if overstated.
There is ZERO evidence that the market for theatrical films is damaged in any way beyond repair and in time, with studios actually making movies of some range, historic improvement. In any business, if you remove a segment of the revenue production of the business, the overall gross will suffer. And that is what the major studios have done. It’s not a whim. It is really simple math.
If the expensive steak house in town decided to limit its menu to only appetizers and entrees over $125, its business would suffer. Some people would come in and spend the money because they don’t care what they spend. And maybe there would be ways to make money on that business model. But the number of people who frequented the steakhouse would drop and the overall gross would be lower.
What would the NBA be like if only 3-pointers counted… or Major League Baseball if only homeruns put runs on the board or the NFL if you had all the plays, but no play under 25 yards resulted in a score?
There is, somehow, an industry-wide delusion that this isn’t what theatrical movies are currently suffering. But it is precisely what is happening. We all hope for the best. We all love Gosling and Blunt. Universal has seemed infallible lately. But damn it… they knew what the had in The Fall Guy and still put it in the summer opening slot. That was their best shot in one of the best slots of the year. And they sold the crap out of that thing. I mean… holy hell! Couldn’t escape it.
Well… unless you had to buy a ticket to see it.
It will be a huge success in streaming. People will watch it over and over and over again.
It just had no business in that release slot. (And I am happy that the Wicked trailer is so good… better than what was shown at CinemaCon.)
Then there is the industry journalism group, living in the grip of a relentless urge to pronounce the death of everything in entertainment but Netflix while wildly over-obsessing on the results of every individual movie released.
Think about it. Netflix is a cultural concept… subscription content as the primary revenue stream and just as one of the later windows. No individual anything matters in the absolute.
In theatrical release, the individual film matters absolutely… whether the film itself or its marketing.
This thing where even smart writers can’t or won’t see the forest for the trees in one arena and can’t differentiate whether the trees are the forest or the forest are the trees in another is destructive.
The top 3 movie openings in first 3 weekends of March grossed $148.1 million domestic.
The top 3 movie openings in first 3 weekends of May have grossed $121.1 million domestic.
This is a bloody horror show.
And it has NOTHING to do with the marketplace. It has to do with the movies that have been released and, as an extension, how they have been marketed.
Kingdom of The Planet Of The Apes opened exactly as most of the films of that franchise opened. Great. Expected. It would have been the #3 opening in March. Now, it is the #1 opening in May by over $20 million.
This is terrible. But there was no marketplace issue in the way of The Fall Guy or IF opening to more than $50 million… or even $100 million. It doesn’t mean that they should have been expected to open to those numbers or that not hitting at least double these openings for these movies was really possible. But the strike, in Summer/Fall 2024, did not cause the May drought. Those choices were made more than 2 years ago.
And the May drought will continue. The Garfield Movie is pretty much exactly what it is meant to be. Furiosa is not quite Fury Road, but it is exactly what those who love George Miller action crave. Perfectly fine movies in very specific niches.
However, the best result for a Garfield movie was a $22 million opening. And the best George Miller opening, through his entire amazing career, was $45 million for Fury Road.
So if we get exactly what we should expect from next week’s openings… even add 10%… it’s $25 million for one and just under $50 million for the other. Now, explain to me how “the marketplace” is going to recover, for those dimwitted writers fixated on total gross for the year?
Last May, there were THREE releases that opened to more than any May movie will open to this year. $281 million in openings.
Have you seen a Guardians 3 or The Little Mermaid or Fast X (all of which were positioned as disappointing launches last year)?
If you don’t build it, they won’t come.
June is going to get better. But there are still only 4 major movies landing. Bad Boys: Ride or Die (last one opened to $63m), Inside Out 2 (last one opened to $90m), A Quiet Place: Day One (last one opened to $48m in 2020), and Horizon: An American Saga (first one). So $200 million in openings would not be surprising at all. And I think at least 2 of these movies could be very leggy.
That’s as solid June. But not explosive… at least not at first and now without some real magic.
But May will still sit there like a bowl of overripe fruit.
July will be even stronger. Two potential $100 million openers, each with the chance of being $1 billion+ worldwide grossers. (Despicable Me 4 and Deadpool and Wolverine)
But there are only 2 other major releases the entire month. Fly Me To The Moon and Twisters. And both are wildcards. Maybe… maybe not.
Does either feel like they arrive with the potential of Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One or Haunted Mansion? Is there an underdog coming like Sound of Freedom?
The relative failure of the 2 big titles last July is not the point. There were shots on goal.
Does anyone expect Twisters to do even what Mission did? Is the biggest domestic upside of Fly Me To The Moon over $150 million.
If you want to sell candy, you need candy on the shelf.
And do us all a favor… ask the people who write about box office to stop spinning. I know it doesn’t seem like a big deal. But neither did the Tilt-A-Whirl until your kid vomited all over your pants.
Until tomorrow…
Thoughts on Uni putting Fall Guy on SVOD so quickly? Seems like a desperation move.
Agree and always enjoy the insight. But ..Deadpool & Wolverine did get pushed out the opening weekend slot due to the strikes And I believe that pushed captain America to Feb 2025