The State of Oscars. The One About The Actors Awards.

And now, ladies and gentlemen, The SAG Nominations.

This award season is a corkscrew. Maybe it's because of the relative brevity. The timetable, except for Oscar, isn't all that different. Yet, it feels more compact and each group voting for awards seems less influenced by the others.

On the other hand, the shape of the season is incredibly influenced by the process of narrowing that happened this season, as it has happened in every season over the last 20 years or so. There were, maybe, 25 movies in serious play back just as the Festival Run started with Venice's opening. By the end of the New York Film Festival, it was about 15. And realistically, there were only another dozen movies or so being seriously considered for acting or writing awards that were not serious players in the Best Picture race.

For perspective, there are 15 films with awards ambitions opening in theaters in the 20 days from now until the end of the year. There were 13 in November. Six in October. Five in September…