The State of Oscar. 122819. Are The Boats Turning?

Christmas Day has come and gone and some distributors are happily sleeping, their bellies filled with the comfort of their films' position. Others are — or should be — getting twitchy.

The most comfy of all should be Netflix, for whom absolutely nothing has changed since this holiday window began last Friday the 20th. This is the power (and sometimes weakness) of releasing movies designed to live in a different paradigm than the other distributors competing for Oscar. They lean only on awards marketing and the movies themselves to stake out their position on the field. There is only the call to voters... no response... at least until nominations morning.

The process of The Great Settling still happens for Netflix. But the expectations that are stirring the pot are those of the movies themselves, the marketing, and little else.

On the other hand, Lionsgate is on both sides of the double edged sword this week. Bombshell, which is wildly undervalued, is not being highly valued or seen by th…