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THB in Review: Netflix Columns

Jul 20, 2022

I have written a lot about Netflix in this last/my first 189 newletters. 20 times, in which they were central to the piece. Amazingly, it actually tracks closely (a bit higher) with the company’s % of screen viewership.

I have mostly been bullish on the business from early on and bearish on the stock price for at least 7 years. I have never bought into the Netflix as all TV take. Madness.

Anyway, I have gone from finding myself on the outs in my take on the company to being a bit of a defender. So many who were on the bandwagon have become dismissive of a very strong business. This is not a business world of angels and devils. Gray. Always gray. (But never The Gray Man if you have any taste in action movies.)

As I close in on 200 newsletters, I am trying to get perspective on the work I’ve done here so far. I was wrong about Amazon keeping DeLuca and Abdy. Otherwise, I am pretty comfortable with most of these pieces… though many could use a good edit for ease of engagement.

THB #4: The Dave Chappelle Thing

Dave Chappelle is a master of his craft. You can’t argue the point and be honest at the same time. He is also a lot of other, less attractive things. Like Lenny Bruce and George Carlin before him, he bites. And sometimes what he bites down on, he is wrong about. Some of it remains blind points for him. Some he is evolving on. And some, he was always right…

2 years ago · 4 likes · 3 comments · David Poland

THB #10: Netflix, Chappelle & Constituencies

The 2013 Ted Sarandos utterance, “The goal is to become HBO faster than HBO can become us,” is a classic. There should be merchandise in the new Netflix/Walmart outlets with this sentence knitted, printed, and on temporary tattoos for all to remember…

2 years ago · 1 like · David Poland

THB #30: Why Streaming Is In Stasis

Listen now (12 min) | I have always hated the “horse race” usage for the evolution of streaming. It is, definitively, not a horse race. There will be no one winner. The success of one streamer does not directly affect the success of the others. And the standards most media, execs, and Wall Street are using to measure the race is… well… stupid…

2 years ago · 1 like · David Poland

THB #42: Measuring Content Moving Forward

Listen now (13 min) | It has now become as ubiquitous or more ubiquitous than box office analysis. Streaming analysis. And every time I come across it, I cringe. Not because the people doing the analysis are anything less than super smart. Not because I don’t love crunching numbers. Not because actually knowing the…

2 years ago · David Poland

THB #45: Where The Streamers Are - Dec 2021

I am forever amazed when good reporters get worked by really good corporate publicists. It’s not unlike the disconnect in how things are measured in the current mid-paradigm-shift versus how they were measured by legacy media of just a few years ago… the rules have changed, but many of us are still living by the old rules. Not long ago, access meant get…

2 years ago · 1 like · David Poland

THB #48: Streaming Like Monday Morning

10 Rarely Discussed Truths About Streaming Streaming is television. The international market is the PRIMARY reason for the television market to shift to a streaming-dominant model from the reruns-via-streaming model the networks have had in place for years…

2 years ago · David Poland

THB #54: The New Math in Hollywood

The answer to many questions about the current rules of Hollywood come down to a simple idea… math is no longer the guiding force of the industry. Building working businesses, making more money over time, is no longer the goal. It’s stock price or bust… or “somehow we are going to get Netflix’s 9x annual revenues market cap…

2 years ago · David Poland

THB #57: In The Year 2000... 22...

Listen now (11 min) | It’s that time of year for those of us who opine for a living to stick our necks in the guillotine in the courtyard while people throw old vegetables and fruit… or in Hollywood, poly blend sweaters and cars without built-in wi-fi. Some fearless and fearful predictions for 2022…

2 years ago · 2 likes · David Poland

THB #73: Netflix Is Chilled

Why are these men so happy? When Netflix Masters of the Universe Reed Hastings, Ted Sarandos, and Spencer Neumann released their quarterly investors video interview 2 hours after their quarterly results were released, they came off as giddy. (The images are from the first appearance of each man yesterday…

2 years ago · 2 likes · David Poland

THB #78: Make Your Own Kind of Streamer

I was going to write about the clear move that is happening in popular thinking on streaming towards understanding that subscription streaming cannot work as an everything answer for television, much less all entertainment. Often, it feels like a timid version reading my own writing from the last few years, which at the time I was told was wrong-headed…

2 years ago · 1 like · David Poland

THB #83: The 10 Myths Of Streaming (Pt 1)

Listen now (15 min) | As Disney’s good, but wildly overhyped, quarterly fades from conversation, I keep hearing the repetition of a series of myths that just won’t die. And really, for better or worse, at this moment in the industry, these are at the core of my daily thoughts and conversations…

2 years ago · 2 likes · David Poland

THB #84: The 10 Myths Of Streaming (Pt 2)

(apologies if you are looking for the audio… my mouth and my brain aren’t connecting today. i will try to do the audio later, after some sleep. thanks.)Thanks for reading The Hot Button! Please subscribe if you haven’t to help keep this newsletter free…

2 years ago · David Poland

THB #104: 6 Truths About Streaming

So many claims flying in so many directions… I thought something simple that spoke to the basics might be good to have as a base camp. 1. Nothing Else Is Netflix… Or Will Be Netflix… Or Is Ever Likely To Be Netflix. It’s almost funny to watch these power players aspire to something they cannot become. And it’s not, as some assert, that Netflix is the lea…

2 years ago · David Poland

THB #123: Netflix Day, 1 of 4

Hello… I’ve decided to cover the Netflix release in 4 brief newsletter releases today. It’s 8:45a here in L.A. now. This is the set-up. Expect another newsletter when the earnings announcement is dropped, around 1:30p, with the actual numbers and a little analysis. A third after the earnings call, letting you know what was said and how I took it. And th…

a year ago · 2 comments · David Poland

THB #123: Netflix Day, 2 of 4: Charts

Down 200k subs worldwide. If Russia wasn’t shut down, still a disaster with just 500k sub growth worldwide. There is nothing to be hysterical about here… stock has been wildly overvalued for years. It is not a tech business. It is an entertainment business. Always has been. A grocery story doesn’t become a tech business because they buy the newest cash r…

a year ago · 1 like · David Poland

THB #123: Netflix Day, 3 of 4: Earnings Call

That call was like a piñata. Doug Anmuth (from JP Morgan) wasn’t trying to kill anyone, but he wasn’t taking lazy swings. And every time he hit the Netflix piñata, more candy. Then 16 minutes and 42 seconds into the “call,” the sweetest candy leapt from the piñata without a question even being on the table. Reed Hastings interrupts Spencer Neumann to of…

a year ago · 2 likes · David Poland

THB #123: Netflix Day, 4 of 4 - The Aftermath

It’s schadenfreude Wednesday. The Netflix market cap is going to be right around $100 billion at the end of today’s trading. ($100.42 billion at the close, off 35.12% from yesterday) Wow. I have tried to watch and read “all” of the takes on what is going on from a wide range of writers/talkers. This is that time when people expose th…

a year ago · 1 like · David Poland

THB #160: "Leave Netflix ALONE!!!!"

Things are going to change at Netflix, going from being a $300 billion market cap company to an $82 billion market cap company. There is more pressure on performance. There is a lot more negative energy out there about the company. Taking on more debt is not a good option (interest rates going up as well…

a year ago · 1 like · David Poland

THB #188: The Day Before Netflix Q2

I have been reading all the writing I can. Everyone is speculating about this or that. I even heard the crazy talk about Comcast buying everything that might be for sale again. Fantasies that Netflix will suddenly drop another $50 a share. Not happening…

a year ago · David Poland

THB #189: Netflix Q2 2022 (Pt 2)

The “call.” (I would post it, but Netflix doesn’t allow it.) Pretty boring, all things considered. Doug Emmett from JP Morgan was not a pushover, but he didn’t dig too deep for details - knowing they wouldn’t be forthcoming - in a few areas. Like when he brought up the …

a year ago · David Poland

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