Thin news day… really thin… even ComicCon coverage is boring thus far…
This looks like a fan of the Rings movies binged too many episodes of Game of Thrones. It also looks shockingly like TV for something this expensive. But I live in hope…
And this one looks like someone asked everyone what they wanted that they didn’t get from Game of Thrones and were told, endlessly, “More dragons!!!”
And now for something completely different…
Steven Spielberg will make his TIFF debut with The Fabelmans
It’s been 30 years and 18 movies since a Steven Spielberg-directed film (Schindler’s List) won the Best Picture Oscar.
2021 - West Side Story launched in December (BP nod)
2017 - The Post launched in December (BP nod)
2015 - Bridge of Spies opened at the NY Film Festival, released in Oct. (BP nod)
2012 - Lincoln opened at the NY Film Festival, released in November (BP nod)
2011 - War Horse launched in December (BP nod)
2005 - Munich launched in December (BP nod)
2004 - The Terminal launched in June
2002 - Catch Me If You Can launched in December
2002 - Minority Report launched in June
2001 - A.I. launched in June
1998 - Saving Private Ryan launched in July (BP nod)
1997 - Amistad launched in December
So… you can see that 4 Spielberg movies got a December release, a nomination, and no wins. 2 more launched at NYFF, got nominated and didn’t win.
What does Terry Press suggest? Try something different on this film that is very personal to Spielberg and on which they want to make a real push for the win.
Obviously they believe in the movie, so they aren’t afraid of putting it out there.
And when was the last time a DreamWorks or Amblin film won Best Picture? American Beauty in 1999. Where did it launch? Toronto.
Winner winner chicken dinner.
The film has a current release date of November 23, via Universal, the studio that won Best Picture with Green Book, premiering at TIFF and releasing in November.
Here’s the thing. A Pete Farrelly period drama about race and closeted homosexuality is a heavy lift. You have to convince people. On the other hand, Spielberg guarantees a ton of attention, always.
American Beauty opened in early October. I would move The Fabelmans to October 7.
Universal has Halloween Kills on the 14th, but obviously, these are not really competitors with one another. And for what it’s worth, right now, Universal has three release weeks in a row scheduled for November (Fabelmans in the middle).
Also, an October 7 launch means that Universal can be pushing VOD and physical media for Thanksgiving. If the movie plays really well and is commercial, they can push for a 2nd wave for Thanksgiving in theatrical too.
I am not a fan of the 2.5 month window between festival premiere and release. It means convincing everyone a second time. The Shape of Water and Green Book did it back-to-back in 2017/2018. But if Fabelmans has the challenges of either of those films, it ain’t winning Best Picture anyway. Spielberg is a hammer… or a thankful nominee.
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