
Today in Deadline, “After a rapturous premiere in Hollywood on Monday night and reviews this morning of 85% certified fresh, hopefully there’s no reason for anyone on the Burbank lot to sweat.’
Are you f-ing kidding?
Was this writer around for the rapturous premiere of Elio, 83% on RT? Or the 71% RT after the premiere for the biggest movie of the year so far, Lilo & Stitch?
And then… “What could put this over the top? Reviews, which currently stand at 85% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes — roughly equal to the review rating of the original 1978 Richard Donner Superman starring Christopher Reeve. That will convince the adults to go see this next rendition.”
NO!!! It bloody well will not!!!
The subtext is that, for some reason, projecting a $100 million domestic opening isn’t quite good enough… they need more… so where will they find it?
Well, folks… they have found it. The die is cast for this weekend. No matter what the RT score… no matter what the CinemaScore… no matter what PostTrak says… no matter some company claiming to the know the mind of social media says… within about 10% or $10 million… people have made up their mind about going this weekend.
That doesn’t mean that they are locked at $100 million - $110 million. Not what I am saying at all. What I am saying is that tracking is tracking and it is a survey and the survey is often wrong and Warner Bros will be very happy if they are very wrong in the low end of tracking. A $163 million domestic would make it the biggest open of the year, $150 million would make it #2 and anything between $93 million and $146 million would place it at #3 and not make anyone cry.
But the point is, people have made up their minds. Either the mostly positive tone in the media is either confirming their expectations or making them want to see for themselves… which most people who go this weekend will have felt at least a week ago.
No one is saying, “Hey… if Superman isn’t as good as Sinners, which is at 97 on RT, I’m staying home!” No one is saying, “I have to go to see Superman to help them beat that $100 million tracking estimate. Can’t let Jurassic World: Rebirth open better!” And no one is saying, “Roger Ebert and Gene Siskel gave Superman III a Thumbs Down in 1983, so I’m waiting!”
Speaking of which… what kind of mania is it to compare the insta-RT-score of this afternoon to the score from a 1978 movie on a site, Rotten Tomatoes, that launched in 1998.
Again, Superman III did not have a RT score (31% or otherwise) in 1983, when it opened 15 years before RT existed. How is this supposed to be relevant to a. movie opening this week?
While the piece mentions PLFs, it never mentions IMAX, which skipper over Jurassic World: Rebirth and stuck with F1 last weekend and I believe almost all go to Superman this weekend. Why the snub?
Then there is the absurd use of “First Choice” stats like they mean something significant in the conversation. Comps are Lilo & Stitch, A Minecraft Movie, and the March opening of The Batman in 2022? WHAT?!?!
Be clear… I am looking forward to Superman being a hit. And after I see it tonight, I hope I have another summer movie that I love. (I already bought 3 tickets for my family to see it on Thursday.) It seems to be fairly popular with film critics and I suspect it will, as the numbers fill in, remain in the 80s at the utterly irrelevant RT.
And none of this matters this weekend… and mostly, not at all.
Like I wrote before, if there is a 10% box office influence from critics over 4 days of opening - shall we stop pretending that Thursday is a preview? - that would be unusually powerful for a Major Studio wide release movie.
But it doesn’t keep a smart guy in the position as the top box office writer at the top trade writing this dumb stuff every week. Who is editing The Watchers?
Until tomorrow…
Great rant, David! I'm always here for the rant! ;)