THB #695: Hard 8

There is no commentary about this industry more stupid than the “movie that saved the industry” talk. No movie has ever saved the industry or killed the industry.

5 months before Top Gun: Maverick “saved theatrical” in 2022, Spider-Man: No Way Home grossed $400 million more at the worldwide box office. And 7 months after TG:M, Avatar: The Way Of Water did $700 million more at the box office. Yet, somehow, it was all Tom Cruise saving the day. Absurd. No shade to Cruise or the film, which mattered a lot to the bottom line… but media prefers the myth to the facts.

So as we are now in the moment of "A Minecraft Movie saves theatrical,” I want to focus on the crappy 3 months before its arrival.

There were 26 releases on more than 2000 venues on the 13 weekends since the 1st of the year before Minecraft led the first weekend in April last weekend. 6 of those 25 were in more than 3500 venues, all from 4 of the 5 current Major studios, so I am putting them to the side. They were a mixed bag, in many ways, but they have a different kind of gravity than the rest of the group.

What I am interested in figuring are the 16 titles between 2500 and 3500 venues. Only half of them are from the 5 Majors.

6 of the 16 films will be profitable. The Monkey, from Neon, will be the most profitable, in great part because of its low budget. One of Them Days, from Sony, will be the 2nd most profitable, with a relatively low budget.

The next 4 will be marginally in the black: Den of Thieves: Pantera, Heart Eyes, Flight Risk, and A Working Man. No one will pretend that these were all they hoped for, but they look like, with post-theatrical revenues, that they won’t lose money and will even make a little.

That leaves 10 films, which is where the ennui sets in. 8 of the 10 are from the current Majors (Disney/Paramount/Sony/Universal/Warner Bros), 1 from a Dependent of same (Focus). The “outsiders” are A24 with Death of a Unicorn and Ketchup with the WB cast-off, The Day The Earth Blew Up. Each has an economic blind spot, in that Unicorn hasn’t played internationally yet and we don’t really know how much Ketchup paid for the Looney Tunes movie.

classic thriller or a documentary about abused refugees?

The 5 Universal (inc 2 Focus), 2 Warner Bros, and 1 Paramount titles all have to be considered disappointments and likely money losers.

Last Breath
Companion
Wolf Man
Black Bag
Novocaine
The Woman in the Yard
Love Hurts
The Alto Knights

What does the group have in common?