THB #690: "No" White

Once again, I find myself drawn into writing about a terrible box office weekend… not because of the weekend itself, but because of the drama around it.

The first headline is saw on Apple News was Variety’s…

So I guess that’s good news…

But then, The Hollywood Reporter…

Then, The Wrap…

And then my first box office read when I am looking for the deepest analysis, Anthony at Deadline…

Box office is not subjective. It’s a number. Analysis clearly is.

There is a very real chance that the $45m - $48m guess will be wrong… more likely to be low than high, as this film is clearly a family film with a heavy lean to young women (formerly known as “girls”). But that is par for the course. The whole model of guessing at the whole weekend’s box office based on Friday matinees is anti-journalistic and has been forever. It was not a big deal when it was insider spitballing and a variation of 15% was not publicized as a big deal. But since Nikki, who always HATED box office even though it was the engine that built Deadline, it’s all just a bunch of outlets desperate to guess at the result “first” and then just as happy to disappear the bad early guessing.

But I digress…

I clicked on that first link to Variety and for the first time read a version the lie that would pretty much be repeated everywhere else… “on track to land within projections for an opening weekend north of $45 million.”

No. The tracking, up until this week, was up at $60 million. I’m not trying to disrespect tracking firms and the adjustment that they made this last week before release.

Anthony wrote a pretty crazy column on Tuesday trying to navigate the “what happened to Snow White?” question. Endless rationalizations. But at least he was trying to offer some perspective. The story, overall, took a turn last Saturday, when Disney had their “people who won’t kill us premiere” at the El Cap with a carnival in the parking lot. Suddenly, there were all these people… people given access so they must have taste, right?… and not only was the movie not a disappointment, it was one of the best ever! Some even have the temerity to attack the most successful Disney live-action conversion ever, Beauty & The Beast, to make more space for Snow. To be fair, the 2nd highest grossing conversion, Aladdin, was pretty crappy, reminding us that box office and quality are not locked together.

But by this morning, the spin was locked in… the bar for Snow White opening as expected would be only $45 million. And rationalizations about the 44% on Rotten Tomatoes would blossom.

“(Mufasa: The Lion King) launched in December with unfavorable reviews and a lukewarm $35 million opening, but it held strong and proved a global draw, ending up with more than $250 million in North America and over $700 million worldwide.”

Does J. Kim Murphy understand the massive difference between the Christmas holiday box office and the rest of the year? It’s not a secret.

We do now have $100+ openings in December. It’s possible. But there were none before 2015. So for instance, no Rings/Hobbit films ever did it. Titanic didn’t do it. The first Avatar didn’t do it. The 6 films that did it were 4 Star Wars movies, a Spider-Man and Avatar 2.

I just erased a bunch of detailed analysis because I don’t want to make your eyes bleed… it’s the weekend.

BUT… amongst the Top 100 openers in December, 31 grossed 5x or better from their opening 3-day. In March’s Top 100? Two ever. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles in 1990 and Liar, Liar in 1997.

It’s a specious comparison on its face with no possible purpose but to offer false hope, as cleverly argued by a studio publicist.

Murphy (bless the memory of A.D. Murphy… a box office master) also, unintentionally, reminds us how stupid the constant recitation of CinemaScore outside of a marketing department is, noting that for the non-launch of Alto Knights, “Cinema Score turned in a measured ‘B’ grade.” Meanwhile, “those who actually bought tickets are leaning positive, with pollster Cinema Score turning in a ‘B+’ grade.” Should either stat matter to the public? No.

Hollywood Reporter’s Pamela McClintock has a more appropriate tone… but is still coughing up some of the spin and some ongoing misinformation…

Snow White’s opening had no more than a single-digit percentage effect from critics. Not the happy talk nonsense from last weekend’s premiere and not a shite Rotten Tomatoes score that is not low enough to actually stop a better opening. And God knows, PostTrak from Thursday night (“5 stars with kids under 12”) didn’t change a thing.

And again, this Mufasa spin is dog excrement.