THB #679: Typing Against My Will

I don’t know what to write today.

I have been working on a piece about many elements of the filmed entertainment universe sitting right at the edge of a precipice, almost daring real life to push them over the edge, unwilling to jump on their own.

But that’s not fun. And when I finally take the deep breath and deliver the piece, it’s not going to feel good. It feels like a lot of people who actually runs all these businesses and organizations know that they are up against it. They don’t need me poking at them. Because no matter how much something I write may resonate with them, they have made choices to not move forward and the challenge of moving these leaky ships is greater than living in hope that the world will fix itself.

The Oscars are 5 days away… but except for the demand from editors that people write pieces, there is really nothing left to say.

The show should be okay. It seems like everything they are doing is kind of a half measure as weighed against its initial intention. They were going for the “Oscar Winners Honor Oscar Nominees” think that Bill Condon created for the Hugh Jackman-hosted show. But Karla Sofia made them poop their pants and now they say they will try it for a non-acting category or two… or not. They abused the shit out of the Song nominees by cutting them out of the show while planning a series of performances by pop stars singing and dancing like this was The Grammys. Boo.

And with due respect to Conan O’Brien… Conan O’Brien.

If the audience hits 21 million, it will be hailed as a success… while actually delivering the 5th worst audience numbers in modern Oscar history as the attempt to renew the contract with ABC gets closer and closer. (The last time there were as many as 25 million viewers was 2018.)

AMC Theaters offered their 4th Quarter and Year-End results today.

“More than 62 million guests visited an AMC theatre worldwide in the fourth quarter, marking a post-pandemic fourth quarter record and a healthy 20% increase compared to 2023. Complementing this fourth quarter attendance milestone, moviegoers enthusiastically embraced the variety and quality of our food and beverage offerings, driving food and beverage revenue per patron to $7.15 — an all-time fourth quarter record for AMC.”

Of course, they are still losing money.

And in about a month, in Vegas at CinemaCon, there is some sense out there that the other exhibitors may be ready to revolt against the dominant position of AMC and Adam Aron, as he continues to be seen as a bull in the industry’s china shop. Exhibitors want to move in some more aggressive directions, both in theaters and in the relationship with distributors, who continue to shrink the theatrical window, even when it doesn’t seem to make sense.

With AMC having the most locations and screens in the US, Aron is unavoidably a key leader in American exhibition. The 4 chains that have 1000+ domestic screens represent more than half the total screens in America/Canada.

National Association of Theater Owners (NATO) has been slightly more passive than before, but for many years, the reality was that colluding is illegal… but leaders leading the way is not. That is how things work.

The current example of conflict coming from one of Aron’s choices is AMC’s position in the deal to have Greta Gerwig’s 2026 Narnia on IMAX screens for 2 weeks on all of America’s IMAX screens. AMC has 182 IMAX screens in the North America. There are only another 100 and change IMAX screens in movie theaters (and another 100 and change IMAX screens in museums and places like that). So AMC has committed their IMAX screens. The other exhibition screens have not yet committed. And according to Kim Masters, newly at Puck, they may withhold their agreement in a rebellion against Aron.

But that is not the only issue.

It may not seem clear to most people, but distribution continues to squeeze the theatrical window. Word is that Aron has not been willing to push back, while many other feel very strongly that the exhibition industry should.

There are changes to how the market makes itself available to consumers that the public cite as obvious, over and over again. But again, there is not real opportunity for change without AMC and Regal agreeing and/or leading the way.

Some of this stuff could come to a head at CinemaCon this year, especially with some excitement around the upcoming 2025 slate of films and beyond.

Okay… that’s it… this effort to avoid writing what I must is done for now. Happy Tuesday.

Until tomorrow…