THB #67: Where Should Jason Kilar Land?
THB #67: Where Should Jason Kilar Land?
I was working on my final New Year’s Resolutions piece and I realized that while we know very little about exactly what Zaz (as all of us who went to pre-school with him call him) is going to do at Warners, it occurred to me that the thinkpiece hot spot of March is going to be, “Where is Kilar going?” So let’s get at it.
Before I do that, it seems to me that it might seem sexist to write a Kilar piece and not an Ann Sarnoff piece. But I will include her in the overall resolutions piece. She will land somewhere she likes. Or maybe just join the investor class in her 60s, becoming a board member to a few of the top companies on the planet. Many will want her. But is she going to find another job in “Hollywood” at the level she was at? No. She was a reach for this gig when she got it and she hasn’t proven herself to be the answer to any of the questions she was hired to answer.
Kilar, on the other hand, just turned 50, and is a beloved of the media. He is the Harold Hill of Hollywood, though he is aiming a lot higher than Marian, The Librarian. Don’t take that as just a slap… Harold Hill was always the smartest guy in the room. And the most charming. Like Mr. Hill, Kilar is still looking for the place where he can stop working The Territory and be at home.
Zaz (as all of us who went to summer camp with him call him) is surely going to be the charming face of DiscoT. And what charming leader wants another charming leader behind him making bunny ears in all the photos?
So where will he land in APSCFAD?
(Pronounced “Apps-E-Fad,” it’s an acronym of Apple, Paramount, Sony, Comcast, Fox, Amazon, and Disney. And if you add Discovery Warner Bros. - which is actually Warner Bros. Discovery - it still sounds the same. And I am not including Netflix here because… no way in hell!)
Let’s just roll through the companies, shall we?
Apple just doesn’t seem to be planning on investing enough in the content business to make him applicable.
Paramount. Hmmm… let’s hold that for the finals.
Sony has gone a different route, selling off content. They have new multi-year deals in place. So JK would be spinning his wheels for years before he could really do anything.
Comcast. Hmmm… finals.
Fox seems to be going down quite a different rabbit hole than Kilar’s ambitions fit.
Amazon is already in the middle of moving around deck chairs with the future of the MGM/UA team a giant question mark. Leadership is already leaning to television/streaming. In many ways, this would be an even bigger commitment by Amazon than buying MGM/UA. Don’t see it.
Disney. Finals.
We are down to Paramount, Comcast, and Disney as potential landing spaces for a WarnerDisco-exiting Jason Kilar. Here is how I would rank them…
3. Disney - Bob Chapek just got rid of OG Bob and his fantastic wardrobe and haircut. Kevin Feige is either going to happily keep building what he has built, taking occasional swims in his pool, which is filled with gold coins or he is going to cause havoc internally for The New Bob. But aside from that, Chapek has the faceless hive mind of cash creators that seems to be his preference. (There are some very charming people indeed at Disney… but they aren’t noisy.) Kilar is noisy.
Now, some cynical people would say that a attention-grabbing Kilar at Disney (he can’t help it… he was drawn this way) would give New Bob someone to publicly execute if anything goes wrong. And there is that.
On the flip side, Kilar is exciting to Wall Street. And you might get the idea that Chapek would sell Goofy for medical experiments (is he a dog or not?) if it would score him $7.50 on the stock price.
I guess the bottom line here is, what would Kilar bring to the Disney streaming world that isn’t already in process with much quieter leadership and how much would a Kilar hire inspire Wall Street?
I tend to think this would be a very intriguing hire… but a bit redundant
2. Comcast - For me - and I’m sure there are others with a ton more specific insight than me on this - it seems like the challenge for Comcast would be to untangle all the disparate ideas of what Comcast should be in its next generation before someone like Kilar would be properly useful.
I believe all the doom and gloom around both Peacock and Paramount+ are being wildly overstated these days. The decade of Netflix streaming success has left watchers too hyper about these pretty new streamers finding their legs right now.
That said, Comcast may not be in as much of a rush as others. They have the most pieces, of any of the legacy companies, that are going to wind down in the next decade. On the other hand, there is going to be a lot of cash in them there legacy business segments for at least 5 more years.
When Comcast argues in public statements that they are happy with how things are going, I kinda believe them. I don’t agree with them, necessarily… but I think they are using a different scale than the rest of us. And there are so many conflicting interests, I don’t really trust any of the analysts to tell me otherwise.
So I don’t think that dropping a Kilar bomb in the middle of all that right now is really what the company wants. It might be something they would benefit from. But I don’t think we will be finding out anytime soon. If Kilar hangs out for a few years, dabbling, this might be a fit in 2025 or so.
1. Paramount/Viacom - Amazingly - to me at least - I think this is a pretty good fit. Brian Robbins has been in charge at Paramount for 4 months already… and it’s quiet… so quiet. David Nevins has been his TV doppelganger. Also quiet. The place is winning on content for the moment. But they are also suffering from some big mistakes. Some put one of the mistakes - Yellowstone being spread across apps like warm peanut butter - at the feet of Nevins, kinda. He passed on the show at CBS All-Access. according to Matt Belloni.
If Kilar was going to Viacom, he’d have to report directly to Bob Bakish and be given the title of Rainmaker of the Future. He would need David Nevins and he might need to get rid of Brian Robbins, who isn’t really the guy to fight for the movie side. On the other hand, maybe he doesn’t want someone to fight too hard for the movie side.
ViacomCBS stock would get a boost from a Kilar hire. It would signal that the studio is serious about being a continuing business and isn’t just looking to put new paint on the thing to sell it off. Just getting him to take the job would show this, as he is probably looking to stay in one last place for the next 15-20 years, exiting a superstar. (And that is not a criticism. Legacy matters.)
Of course, none of this is happening overnight. Zaz (as all of us who have gone water skiing with him call him) isn’t going to be on the throne in Burbank for a few more months. And Kilar’s exit payout grows the longer he stays at the studio, at least into July.
Whenever the separation happens, Kilar instantly becomes the hottest executive talent on the hoof. But he isn’t your classic CEO type, like Ann Sarnoff, who can be put into a gig where there isn’t really much direct experience. If you hire him, you are making a very clear statement about your company’s future and what direction you hope he will take it. You will get a stock price benefit. But then, you still need to build a business and there is a long history of excellent triangles that don’t fit well into excellent rectangles.
As I worked through this piece in my mind, I have to say, I was kind of excited to find a place where I think Kilar could really change the future of a company in a super-positive way. Paramount needs change. Still. It needs dynamic leadership. It needs a face.
Or maybe the Saudis will buy the whole thing and Kilar will go become a cannabis billionaire. Ha.
Until tomorrow…