THB #668: The Oscar Bump

I read a piece by Scott Mendelson on Puck last night, which I found a bit unsatisfying, suggesting that the Oscar Bump was a thing of the past, somehow tying it to the COVID wall and the false notion that theatrical hasn’t recovered as well as it can, given the lack of movies being released by Major studios.

Having lived through the Miramax and Weinstein era(s) of award season marketing and distribution, I instinctually responded with the thought that The Oscar Bump was always a misnomer. In addition, the notion that “in the good ol’ days” the Oscar nominations were thick with the biggest grossers didn’t sit right. And so, I decided to do some actual research.

I went back to 1990 and then every 5 years moving forward, including 2024, which admittedly was a year short of 5 from 2020. I looked at release dates, when the movie went wide, and then compared the gross after the weekend before nominations vs the final domestic totals. Finally, I computed the percentage of improvement from nom…