THB #622: 15 Weeks to Oscar - Dangerous Underdogs

“Only 10 of you can be nominated and only 1 of you can win… I expected a larger group to be at the table… shall we talk about the precursors?”

We’re 11 days from Thanksgiving and the Oscar charts, though well narrowed, are still an absolute mess. There are contenders, but almost no locks. This means that there are some serious opportunities for not-so-obvious nominations to come in.

I’m not talking about calling out names that are likely in, but I want to pretend are on the wrong side of the bubble. So for each acting category, I will offer who I think is probably in… those feeling like they will fill out the list… and then, the Dangerous Underdogs, who are people who I think can legitimately get in, but are fighting uphill.

BEST ACTRESS

These 3 are, I think, as closed to locked in as they can be at this point. The 2 biggest movie stars in the field, both delivering top notch and unexpected work, and the season’s newest newcomer, who should be running in Supporting but will still get nominated in Lead.

Nicole Kidman - Babygirl
Angelina Jolie - Maria
Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez

The next 5 are really fighting it out for the last 2 slots. 4 very different stories. Only 1 - of all of these top contenders - will be the star of a $100m+ domestic hit. Only 1 stars in a slapstick comedy (or a comedy of any kind, really) that also allows a big emotional turn in the 3rd act. Only 1 is an Oscar-winner. Only 1 is a beloved 6-time Oscar nominee who pushes a new button yet again in this work which is a psychological thriller with humor but serious life lessons. Only 1 is making a career comeback with the most outrageous of all the performances. You can’t really go wrong with any of these choices. They are all worthy… each with their own seasonal limitations that are not really about the work.

Amy Adams in Nightbitch
Cynthia Erivo in Wicked
Mikey Madison in Anora
Demi Moore in The Substance
Tilda Swinton in The Room Next Door

The Dangerous Underdog

Saoirse Ronan in The Outrun. She’s been nominated 4 times. She is as raw and real in this performance as any you will see this year or most others. She would be the youngest nominee. Sony Classics has a great history of getting actresses into the nominations group, against the odds created by the sometimes bottomless pockets of the major studios and streamers. But it will be a fight. Blitz goes to AppleTV+ on Friday, so that will be out of the publicity mix for her.

The Less Dangerous Underdog

Lily-Rose Depp in Nosferatu - She really is the lead of this movie… can’t seriously argue that point. But it is, ultimately, a monster movie. Can she overcome her name, the genre, and this very loaded group to get a nomination? I don’t really, really think so. But the chase might be worth it. The performance is kind of in a straightjacket (not literally), as she feels so many powerful things, but is limited in her physicality in the design of the film. So we get a very silent film performance, in a way. I will soon see it again, but it’s kind of brilliant, I think. The performance isn’t artificial, though some of the circumstances are. She takes us on the journey. She is the challenged emotional state calling to Nosferatu to come to her. But I don’t think the movie will play like Scorsese’s Cape Fear. It is smaller… more precious… so that those who love it will love it with white heat and those who do not are likely to feel exhausted. It’s really hard to measure how prevalent each group will be.

BEST ACTOR

What a clusterfuck of a category this season.

It’s not that there are not great performances all over the place. There are.

But this is the kind of season where there is a movie called Nosferatu, but the actor playing Nosferatu is barely in it and when he is, he is mostly obscured. As a movie lover and a fan of Eggers, he’s great and unexpected and a joy. But it’s not really a role in which you can say, “That is the lead actor!”

It’s the kind of season in which we all love Colman Domingo and were thrilled he was nominated last season and this season are seriously discussing him getting nominated again for a movie that did $2.4 million at the domestic box office and has probably been seen by less than 20% of Academy members.

It’s the kind of season where otherwise sane people have so few ideas of who can win this category - last one in, likely to crush the rest, arrives this week - that they continue to tout one of the great actors of the last 3 decades who is starring in an entertaining potboiler that is less worthy of any Oscar consideration than The Menu was a couple of seasons ago.

So…

The A-List

Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown. That’s it. Still. And I still haven’t seen the movie.

The Next Tier

Adrien Brody in The Brutalist
Daniel Craig in Queer
Colman Domingo in Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes in Conclave
Sebastian Stan in What Were Those Movies Called Again?

Let me start with the last one. I adore Sebastian Stan. I think he is a good person in real life. I think he is very, very serious about his ambitions to do important and challenging work. I think he is very good in both A Different Man and The Apprentice. But for all the passion that went into the release of The Apprentice, it did less than $4 million domestic and got more media hype than it affected votes. And A Different Man was just a non-starter with audiences and as good as Stan is (and he is), Adam Pearson kinda steals the show.

The hype for The Brutalist is, to me, a kink. I am returning to see it a second time in 70mm, hoping that I will somehow be infected in a way the first screening did not manage. But to me, it is a high-art film and film critics don’t get to vote for Oscar. Of course, it may well be that Adrien Brody gets both the NY and LA film critics awards and that the film gets at least 1 of the 2, which, even though critics are generally not enormously impactful, can well impact the race this season because in this category, people are desperate for a train they can get on.

Daniel Craig is excellent in Queer. I agree with him, as I saw him speaking on Tik Tok, that the gay sex in the movie is not really one of the central features. It is intense and a little shocking for its moments and then, really not a significant part of the majority of the movie. It’s really a movie about a junkie who happens to be gay, not a gay man who happens to be a junkie. I haven’t investigated the story behind the movie’s non-release so far, which A24 acquired just before Venice this summer. The film screened in LA just once before November, in a room so small that they had to turn away more RSVPs than they accepted. More screenings in the last couple weeks. The film just landed on some of the voting streaming platforms. A24 didn’t send the film out in the first wave of DVDs they will send for consideration. The movie is, I think, currently scheduled to go out in limited release a week from Wednesday. Craig is a movie star and is likely to get attention, especially in this narrow field. He is also doing the thing that classically wins Oscars… being a straight person playing a gay person. And I think he does it with love and respect and no insult at all. So I suspect that in this field, he is inevitable. And worthy… assuming there is no gay backlash.

Colman Domingo is a great actor and that is true in Sing Sing, as it has been for many years in which he did not get his due. But with respect… we’ve been through this movie before. And before. And before. Remember Charles S. Dutton… great actor… former convict… but a big heart and an open spirited soul who was not shy about telling his truth. I don’t know why he retired almost a decade ago, but I hope he is happy and well. I miss his work. And I often recommend Jairus McLeary and Gethin Aldous’ documentary, The Work, which goes into a men’s group in Folsom Prison and is an absolute landmark that should have gotten all the attention that Scared Straight got back in the day, but did not. Now… unfair to hang this on Colman. I won’t be unhappy if he gets nominated 2 years in a row. But given the status of the movie, if he is nominated, it will be for lack of other choices that come to mind. Sorry… no disrespect to the work… but that is the situation in this category this season.

Finally, Ralph Fiennes, one of our greatest actors of range and class and a real passion for theater and film and acting. There is nothing at all wrong with this performance in Conclave. It’s just that the only film work he has done that is less interesting in the last 5 years is his turn as M in Bond… a turn that is perfect and delightful, but a cog in the machinery that is Bond. There is nothing about his performance in Conclave that is unexpected, in terms of his skill set, or special, given the challenges he sets out for himself. Nice that people want to give him a lifetime achievement award. But maybe wait for Farnsworth House or his Nicholas Hytner movie next year.

The Dangerous Underdogs

I offer 3 who could be legitimate contenders to take 1 or 2 of the slots, if managed correctly.

Andrew Garfield in We Live In Time - The movie has grossed $24 million domestically for A24, their #2 grosser this year (so far) after Civil War. The critics don’t love it. It’s not a film that created a huge profile. But it’s 2 lead actors are top of their game. And the twice nominated Garfield should be being campaigned hard. Doesn’t seem to be happening. But it could become a real thing if they tried.

Hugh Grant in Heretic - The #3 A24 grosser in 2024, which will pass We Live In Time soon. Remember the McConau-sance? We are in the Grant-aisance. He has become - in acknowledging the pithy edge in public that he has always had and allowing himself to be shrunk - kinda beloved. And he is pretty great in this quirky little thriller. It would be an oddity, yes. But he’s never been Oscar nominated. Again… A24 doesn’t seem to be focused on this effort. But it could still rise up.

John Magaro in September 5 - Magaro is a face people kinda remember and a name they inevitably forget. But he is a great rising actor and has been for the last 5 years and then some. And this year, he happens to be in a movie that should be a major Best Picture player. He is not only in the movie… he is the lead in a great ensemble. His character is the entry point and the exit point for the film. And Paramount, not a small, underfunded indie company, is chasing this brass ring this year. The movie is coming out at the end of the month, but screenings are now happening on the regular for voters. Usually, Best Actor nominees are already known for something or doing something really unusual… though they usually end up in Supporting in that case, even if they are the Lead. The hardest part of getting Magaro nominated is that he is, “John who?” to a lot of people who are not casting films, always watching for the next great generation of actors. But Paramount can do this. They can also come up short. This role, played by a celebrity, would be a lock for a nomination… so I am really hoping that Magaro will leave a lot of people asking, “Who?” on nominations morning. And they will learn his name.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS