THB #618: 16 Weeks To Oscar - The Election

The results of the presidential election were, for many, unexpected. But this is not a political column.

The question is how will the result affect the Oscar season, particularly in the Best Picture race.

But before I get to that, let me start by saying that it is probably good fortune for ABC and The Academy that Jimmy Kimmel has bowed out. He would no doubt be funny, but the first casualty of the show - all the way in March - currently feels like smug jokes about Trump. Of course, by then, he may (or may not) have committed a variety of moral obscenities that change that and, really, any of the thinking that I will offer today.

Watching Wicked post-election (review coming after a second view, later this week) was surprisingly striking for me on a gut political level. The story hinges on a leader/leaders who seek to take away rights from a vulnerable group (in this case, animals who speak). But at the core, it’s a story about a minority individual (she’s green) who is other-ized from birth. But she happens to be gifted and ends up at the top school in the land with its leader having plans for her even before her arrival (it would seem). Moreover, though it is not made completely clear in Part I, her existence is the product of an alcohol-driven seduction of her black mother by a white wizard (which is also a bit of a stereotype). She is matched up at the school with the most lily white and elite of students (though, yes, Ariana Grande is of Italian descent). After being abused by said white witch in the making, they become friends… even though the movie opens with this good witch denying her love for her once friend.

Okay… enough description. The movie is 2 hours and 40 minutes, so be comfortable that I haven’t spoiled a thing.

It makes perfect sense that Cynthia Erivo was picked for this role. The idea that it matters what race the person under the green make-up is… well… silly. But with the flashback to her mother (who is black) and the lack of black people in the rest of the film, and at this political moment, the symbolism of Elphaba’s racial background is more pronounced for the audience… at least this member of it.

The question about that - and other things - is whether this is good or bad for the movie’s commercial ambitions and for its Oscar ambitions. I don’t really know.

And I am sure the studio would prefer it to be no kind of issue at all. I am sympathetic to this. I truly am. It’s what I would prefer too. Maybe it will be nothing. But we’re 2 months out from nominations voting as half the country goes through Kübler-Ross’ steps. Ball is hanging in the air at the tip.

I had Wicked in my Top 5 a couple of weeks ago, before it was screened widely, and that hasn’t changed at all in my view. The film is getting nominated unless it somehow crashes after a strong opening… which I don’t think will happen at all. Audiences have been very enthusiastic, which might be an understatement.

But when it comes to winning, there is a lingering question of whether this movie about finding and expressing your power will be a symbol about what liberals seek to overcome (and make no mistake, liberalism is the most dominant demo at The Academy, even if leanings of racism, sexism, and homophobia have been apparent over the decades) OR if it will feel like too precious an expression of breaking through when the election left us broken down?

The other BIG movie of the season is Gladiator II, which will also play very well with audiences on release. Even more than the original film, this one is about The State, which is being run by obnoxious twins and against which Denzel Washington’s character is planning a power grab. Our hero, Lucius (Paul Mescal), hates all of the powerful and seeks revenge for the murder of his wife (who is played by an Israeli actress… though you would only know that if you looked it up).

So how does it affect the emotional feelings (never underestimate this as part of the Oscar process) about the movie when the left has just lost an election? Does it make the voters connect more with Lucius, enraged by leadership that it wants to destroy or does it marginalize those feelings? One could as the same question in reverse if Harris had won. But she didn’t.

This is still a season without a clear frontrunner. Likewise, it is unclear how the election will end up sitting as these movies line up.

Anora is about a young sex worker who has an adventure of great highs and lows. The Substance is a fantasy about a great famous beauty desperate to save herself from the unavoidable cruelty of time, which we see 100% on camera. Emilia Pérez is about a trans person who rises above but cannot completely escape her past identity.

Are voters, as a group, more likely or less likely to fully embrace - aka vote #1 or #2 - these flights of fancy that deliver great depth?