THB #612: 18 Weeks To Oscar - Actors!

Time for a revisit of the 4 acting races.

The primary theme remains, “*(&@(*)(#)U*#!”

It’s a kind of magical year for performances by women and a giant mess amongst the men.

I guess it makes sense of the idea that some people are hanging on to Conclave for dear life… because there isn’t another movie overflowing with testosterone (insert your own joke if you know, you know?).

Look back at the last 5 years of Best Actor nominees and of those 25 actors, you will find that Bardem (Dune II) and Washington (Gladiator II) are in the season in Supporting roles and that Paul Mescal (Gladiator II) and Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) are the only 2 recent Actor nominees in the race for Actor this year… and both are long shots.

So 2 out of the last 25 nominees are even in play.

Go back to this same series of statistics a decade ago - as a random sample - and Eddie Redmayne, who was touted 2 years earlier for Les Mis, won. Bradley Cooper got his 3rd acting nomination. Benedict Cumberbatch was nominated after being touted repeatedly. Michael Keaton was an industry legend making his comeback. And Steve Carell was the big TV star turning the tables on expectations. Also in play and not nominated were Jake Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler, Joaquin Phoenix in Inherent Vice, Ralph Fiennes in The Grand Budapest Hotel, Timothy Spall in Mr Turner, newcomer David Oyelowo in Selma, Matthew McConaughey in Interstellar, Christian Bale in Exodus, Jeremy Renner in Kill The Messenger, Oscar Issac in A Most Violent Year, Johnny Dep in Transcendence, Phillip Seymour Hoffman in A Most Wanted Man, George Clooney in The Monuments Men, and more.

The list doesn’t look anything like that this season. There is plenty to love about newcomers and of veterans returning to the circle after some time away. But aside from Chalamet and Craig in the Bond role, there isn’t a movie opener in the group.

This doesn’t mean there aren’t more than 5 truly great performances, but as awards seasons go, very thin.

I know it pisses some people off, but I see Timothée Chalamet as a prohibitive favorite to win, unless the movie somehow sucks… in which case, all bets are off. But I can’t imagine that it will be the case. The talent involved is top notch, not looking to make something inaccessible, and gifted with the story of Dylan, whose history will already be as an already established legend whenever the movie story signs off.

Adrien Brody is a tremendous actor and has an Oscar and leads an epic tale, front and center for almost every sequence of The Brutalist. Given the competition this season, A24 should be able to make this happen.

I haven’t seen Queer… which concerns me… very light on LA screenings. But Daniel Craig is an excellent actor and him playing gay will draw a ton of attention… even though I wonder whether his heterosexuality will become an issue during the season.

John Magaro is not a known name, even if many will recognize his face. But he is clearly the lead of September 5, he is excellent, and given the season, Paramount can close this sale with a lot of elbow grease.

BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
Daniel Craig - Queer
John Magaro - September 5

This really only leaves 3 serious contenders. Sony has cleverly turned it’s 1 week ad campaign for Here to “Tom Hanks… Tom Hanks… Tom Hanks… and Tom Hanks!!!” But they are dumping the movie… less hard than WB is dumping Juror #2. But even The Great One can’t convert a movie that is invisible before release into an Oscar nod.

So that literally leaves the already much-touted Ralph Fiennes in Conclave, Paul Mescal in Gladiator II, and last year’s nominee, Colman Domingo in Sing Sing.

Slightly less serious, but probably the strongest dark horse is Sebastian Stan in A Different Man.

Chalamet in Dune II could have happened if he didn’t have another film coming. I would love to include Jude Law in The Order… but that’s not realistic on the business side. To get Ryan Reynolds into the race would take some extreme aggression, which we haven’t see from the Disney camp yet. Ryan Gosling, the same, but a step more difficult because the film is seen as a flop. Joaquin can’t overcome Le Flop Du Jerry Lewis II. Garfield is great in We Live in Time… but another late entry that would need a lot of sudden acceleration.

I just went through the Top 100 grossing movies of 2024 so far… and except for Keaton as Beetlejuice - not happening - that is all there is. I know some of you may be pushing for the clown from Terrifier 3, but… a song, a dance, cutting a bloody hole in you and ripping some organ out of your pants ain’t gonna do it. The point was not to say big movies (#100 is under $5m domestic gross) are key… just looking for any realistic player emerging from an established film.

And now… the more fun half of this exercise… The Women!

BEST ACTRESS

Holy Smokes!!! What a line-up of great performances this year. I mean, killers, one after another. It is thrilling and heartbreaking, because they can’t all make it to the big night. Moreover, even for the 5 that get nominated for Best Actress, I am not remotely comfortable suggesting that anyone is close to being a lock to win.

I’m not predicting Denzel to take Best Supporting Actor yet… but I don’t fear that idea. But all 5 of my current Top 5 and the 4 I have right at the edge of pushing into the list are complex, quirky, intimate, very human performances. (I haven’t seen Wicked.) There is not a single “I’m a movie star surprising you, give me an Oscar” or stunt kind of performance.

Karla Sofía Gascón is really the only newcomer. But in a duel role, she digs deep… in great part because for the most part, her performance is about not getting caught performing.

Tilda Swinton gives a performance of amazing restraint, but with every emotion seeping out beyond the emotional mask and stillness.

Angelina Jolie is doing very thought-thru work as Maria Callas, sling-shotting through every kind of emotion with a dry withholding to all around her, breaking now and again to express deep emotion, but a portrait of a woman hold it together, for herself and her public.

Amy Adams lets it all out, reminding us of the wild, sweet, funny, emotional girl that the world fell in love with Drop Dead Gorgeous, Catch Me If You Can, and Junebug. But here she is an adult, dealing with the life-changing reality of being a parent, breaking out to find her spirit again. Her character is the potential nominee over 30 who you will most want to hang out with.

Under 30, Mikey Madison’s Ani, aka Anora. It’s an all-in performance. Lots of nudity and sex… but that is not what is really so interesting about the performance. It’s how she sees herself and how she lives that believe. This is, we are learning, the Sean Baker signature. People with real ambitions and dreams and struggles. And Mikey Madison gives it to us every minute… no flinching… no winking. To the very last image in the film, we get her everything.

Nicole Kidman knows that people talk about her using botox. Can you get any more “I don’t give a fuck” than playing a character who, like an actress, is constantly being judged and does anything she needs to stay on top, including that, on camera.