THB #612: 18 Weeks To Oscar - Actors!

Time for a revisit of the 4 acting races.

The primary theme remains, “*(&@(*)(#)U*#!”

It’s a kind of magical year for performances by women and a giant mess amongst the men.

I guess it makes sense of the idea that some people are hanging on to Conclave for dear life… because there isn’t another movie overflowing with testosterone (insert your own joke if you know, you know?).

Look back at the last 5 years of Best Actor nominees and of those 25 actors, you will find that Bardem (Dune II) and Washington (Gladiator II) are in the season in Supporting roles and that Paul Mescal (Gladiator II) and Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) are the only 2 recent Actor nominees in the race for Actor this year… and both are long shots.

So 2 out of the last 25 nominees are even in play.

Go back to this same series of statistics a decade ago - as a random sample - and Eddie Redmayne, who was touted 2 years earlier for Les Mis, won. Bradley Cooper got his 3rd acting nomination. Benedict Cumberbatch was nominated after being touted repeatedly. Michael Keaton was an industry legend making his comeback. And Steve Carell was the big TV star turning the tables on expectations. Also in play and not nominated were Jake Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler, Joaquin Phoenix in Inherent Vice, Ralph Fiennes in The Grand Budapest Hotel, Timothy Spall in Mr Turner, newcomer David Oyelowo in Selma, Matthew McConaughey in Interstellar, Christian Bale in Exodus, Jeremy Renner in Kill The Messenger, Oscar Issac in A Most Violent Year, Johnny Dep in Transcendence, Phillip Seymour Hoffman in A Most Wanted Man, George Clooney in The Monuments Men, and more.

The list doesn’t look anything like that this season. There is plenty to love about newcomers and of veterans returning to the circle after some time away. But aside from Chalamet and Craig in the Bond role, there isn’t a movie opener in the group.

This doesn’t mean there aren’t more than 5 truly great performances, but as awards seasons go, very thin.

I know it pisses some people off, but I see Timothée Chalamet as a prohibitive favorite to win, unless the movie somehow sucks… in which case, all bets are off. But I can’t imagine that it will be the case. The talent involved is top notch, not looking to make something inaccessible, and gifted with the story of Dylan, whose history will already be as an already established legend whenever the movie story signs off.

Adrien Brody is a tremendous actor and has an Oscar and leads an epic tale, front and center for almost every sequence of The Brutalist. Given the competition this season, A24 should be able to make this happen.

I haven’t seen Queer… which concerns me… very light on LA screenings. But Daniel Craig is an excellent actor and him playing gay will draw a ton of attention… even though I wonder whether his heterosexuality will become an issue during the season.

John Magaro is not a known name, even if many will recognize his face. But he is clearly the lead of September 5, he is excellent, and given the season, Paramount can close this sale with a lot of elbow grease.

BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
Daniel Craig - Queer
John Magaro - September 5

This really only leaves 3 serious contenders. Sony has cleverly turned it’s 1 week ad campaign for Here to “Tom Hanks… Tom Hanks… Tom Hanks… and Tom Hanks!!!” But they are dumping the movie… less hard than WB is dumping Juror #2. But even The Great One can’t convert a movie that is invisible before release into an Oscar nod.

So that literally leaves the already much-touted Ralph Fiennes in Conclave, Paul Mescal in Gladiator II, and last year’s nominee, Colman Domingo in Sing Sing.

Slightly less serious, but probably the strongest dark horse is Sebastian Stan in A Different Man.

Chalamet in Dune II could have happened if he didn’t have another film coming. I would love to include Jude Law in The Order… but that’s not realistic on the business side. To get Ryan Reynolds into the race would take some extreme aggression, which we haven’t see from the Disney camp yet. Ryan Gosling, the same, but a step more difficult because the film is seen as a flop. Joaquin can’t overcome Le Flop Du Jerry Lewis II. Garfield is great in We Live in Time… but another late entry that would need a lot of sudden acceleration.

I just went through the Top 100 grossing movies of 2024 so far… and except for Keaton as Beetlejuice - not happening - that is all there is. I know some of you may be pushing for the clown from Terrifier 3, but… a song, a dance, cutting a bloody hole in you and ripping some organ out of your pants ain’t gonna do it. The point was not to say big movies (#100 is under $5m domestic gross) are key… just looking for any realistic player emerging from an established film.

And now… the more fun half of this exercise… The Women!

BEST ACTRESS

Holy Smokes!!! What a line-up of great performances this year. I mean, killers, one after another. It is thrilling and heartbreaking, because they can’t all make it to the big night. Moreover, even for the 5 that get nominated for Best Actress, I am not remotely comfortable suggesting that anyone is close to being a lock to win.

I’m not predicting Denzel to take Best Supporting Actor yet… but I don’t fear that idea. But all 5 of my current Top 5 and the 4 I have right at the edge of pushing into the list are complex, quirky, intimate, very human performances. (I haven’t seen Wicked.) There is not a single “I’m a movie star surprising you, give me an Oscar” or stunt kind of performance.

Karla Sofía Gascón is really the only newcomer. But in a duel role, she digs deep… in great part because for the most part, her performance is about not getting caught performing.

Tilda Swinton gives a performance of amazing restraint, but with every emotion seeping out beyond the emotional mask and stillness.

Angelina Jolie is doing very thought-thru work as Maria Callas, sling-shotting through every kind of emotion with a dry withholding to all around her, breaking now and again to express deep emotion, but a portrait of a woman hold it together, for herself and her public.

Amy Adams lets it all out, reminding us of the wild, sweet, funny, emotional girl that the world fell in love with Drop Dead Gorgeous, Catch Me If You Can, and Junebug. But here she is an adult, dealing with the life-changing reality of being a parent, breaking out to find her spirit again. Her character is the potential nominee over 30 who you will most want to hang out with.

Under 30, Mikey Madison’s Ani, aka Anora. It’s an all-in performance. Lots of nudity and sex… but that is not what is really so interesting about the performance. It’s how she sees herself and how she lives that believe. This is, we are learning, the Sean Baker signature. People with real ambitions and dreams and struggles. And Mikey Madison gives it to us every minute… no flinching… no winking. To the very last image in the film, we get her everything.

Nicole Kidman knows that people talk about her using botox. Can you get any more “I don’t give a fuck” than playing a character who, like an actress, is constantly being judged and does anything she needs to stay on top, including that, on camera.

I don’t quite know why I started there, but for me, Babygirl is a movie that is really an answer to Kubrick’s Eyes Wide Shut, making the woman the one who wanders through a moment in her life trying to figure out what she really needs. And Kidman has probably always been a better actor than Cruise… but here… she crushes all. I think it’s the best performance of a career of excellent performances because Halina Reijn (writer/director) asks her to carry the film so completely. The rest of the cast is also very good… but Kidman has to carry so many kinds of real emotion while also hiding so much.

Demi Moore was a star before she got to really be an actor. That face. Lord. She became a pro… fast. She got what she was there to do and did it as well as anyone could have expected. But few, if any, really asked her to be the kind of actress that gets Oscar nominations. She tried, it seems, with movies like GI Jane and The Scarlett Letter, but those productions still had her as a symbol more than as a real, complex, fully realized character. One of the many crazy things about The Substance is that it feels like Ms. Moore is finally unburdened by beauty… a movie about self-image and the nasty tricks that nature brings us all (but especially women), Moore gives the performance of her career. Gorgeous, vain, breaking down, obsessive, scared, unclear about who she is if she isn’t “that” anymore, strong, resourceful, outraged, funny, fearless, relentless. She is amazing in this movie.

As noted before, I haven’t see Wicked, so I have no opinion about Ms. Erivo’s performance. I just want to avoid running into her at Target.

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams - Nightbitch
Nicole Kidman - Babygirl
Tilda Swinton - The Room Next Door
Angelina Jolie - Maria
Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez

Demi Moore - The Substance
Mikey Madison - Anora

Cynthia Erivo - Wicked

Next Tier -

All 3 of these are completely worthy of Oscar nominations. I just don’t know if they can make it. Saoirse is the one that I most think could break through somehow. It is such a beautiful, intimate, exposed performance. Fernanda Torres could not be better in the Walter Salles film that she leads. She is as real as anyone you have ever met. And Daisy Ridley is completely charming and compelling and fierce as she fights to become the first woman to swim the English Channel.

Saoirse Ronan - The Outrun
Fernanda Torres - I’m Still Here
Daisy Ridley - Young Woman & The Sea

I haven’t seen Here, so I can’t judge… but as noted above, Sony kinda decided for me. And I love Julianne Moore’s work so much… but I just think she was miscast in this movie. It demands something she doesn’t really do as an actor… even though she remains one of our finest.

Julianne Moore - The Room Next Door
Robin Wright - Here

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Back to the boys… Supporting Actor is easier than Best Actor… but not easy or obvious.

As with Actor, there just isn’t very much in the hopper. A Complete Unknown and for the love of Dafoe, one can take Nosferatu seriously in supporting (and many craft awards).

Denzel is a lock for a nomination. Not for the win. Guy Pearce is, perhaps, the most memorable thing about The Brutalist… so yeah. Edward Norton is always great and I will assume that he is a key supporting character in A Complete Unknown, so… yeah again.

After that, little is sure. Kieran Culkin is not the leas of A Real Pain, but he is awfully close, so as long as Searchlight can get people to see the film, he can lock in at some point.

The 5 slot (or 4 and 5?), feels like open. None of the 5 candidates I have listed in the next group (Dafoe - Sarsgaard) is in a movie that’s been widely seen. So let’s see how things land. When they fall in love… it will be forever…

The bottom group of 3 speaks to my disregard for Conclave and the staleness of the Dune II situation. I love Lithgow and have for a long time - “Get your hands off of me, monkey boy!” - and I love Tucci too. I just don’t think these performances are outstanding, especially given how outstanding these 2 so often are. And there is no bigger Bardem fan than I, but while I think Dune II will get at least 5 nominations, I don’t see acting amongst them.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Denzel Washington - Gladiator II
Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce - The Brutalist

Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain

Willem Dafoe - Nosferatu
Samuel L. Jackson - The Piano Lesson
Yura Borisov or Mark Eydelshteyn - Anora
Jeff Goldblum - Wicked
Peter Sarsgaard - September 5

Javier Bardem - Dune
John Lithgow - Conclave
Stanley Tucci - Conclave

And…

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Lots of candidates… not a lot of sure bets.

Realistically, I am really only looking at 2 sure bets at this point… even without seeing one of them. Why? Because it’s the more popular character… or at least, the more upbeat character.

I also assume that one of the women in Dylan’s life will be a serious Best Supporting Actress candidate… but I am flying awfully blind there.

After that… after that… after that… sigh…

Giant mystery.

Will The Brutalist or September 5 get enough viewership and then enough traction to propel the Supporting performances into nominations? Can Netflix power in the third of three Cannes-winning actress performances and/or the most talked about role in His Three Daughters?

Danielle Deadwyler and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor are both excellent in their films, but will either film have enough propulsion to get them going for real?

Rebecca Ferguson is close being a lead in Dune II… so can WB remind voters of this quickly enough to make it matter? The platform of Blitz is directorial… so even though Saoirse is perfect, the movie may make it hard for her to connect. And again, I haven’t seen Queer, but love Lesley Manville in all things. Interestingly, I think Saoirse may have copped her London accent from Manville for Blitz.

Some people think Rossellini is a leading candidate in this category. I’m a fan, but not a believer. Small role, one decent speech, not a great movie. And I think the Harlequin protest too much. She’s not bum, but this isn’t her night.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Zoe Saldana - Emilia Pérez
Ariana Grande - Wicked

Elle Fanning or Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown

Natasha Lyonne - His Three Daughters
Selena Gomez —Emilia Pérez
Felicity Jones - The Brutalist
Leonie Benesch - September 5

Danielle Deadwyler - The Piano Lesson
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor - Nickel Boys

Saoirse Ronan - Blitz
Lesley Manville in Queer
Rebecca Ferguson - Dune II

Isabella Rossellini - Conclave
Lady Gaga - Joker: Folie á Deux

Until tomorrow…