THB #581: The Future of Filmed Entertainment: Episode One

(Episode Two - Episode Three)

The Forest. The Trees.

I am a forest guy. I need to look closely at the trees in order to try to understand the forest. But I have come to believe, that for whatever reasons, the internet culture has become so much about focusing on the tree of the day, then moving on, and on, and on, that it undermines a serious effort to look into the future in a realistic way.

In other words, how can you really think about the future of Streaming when you can’t stop obsessing on every faux pas committed by David Zaslav?

Again, anyone who reads me knows that I can go as far down the rabbit hole on details as anyone. But in the future, it won’t really matter what the branding is on the platforms that lead. It’s actually one of those history of the industry things that people really don’t remember how much folding in of classic brands/businesses has gone on… even in the pre-1970 studio system era.

So I want to get away from the trees a bit and try to discuss what the forest might look like as we move forward.

Today, I am going to lay down a foundation for my more specific projections. In the next couple of days, a more specific look at what I think television and theatrical movies might look like in the fairly-near future.

And now…

The Future of Home Entertainment will be 90%+ via the internet

YouTube will remain powerful… but limited. Like Google, it is an industry-best delivery system. But in all its success, it has had limited success outside of User Generated content. And it is used by the industry a lot. From trailers to movie and TV rentals to revenue from what would otherwise be copyright infringement, this is a mature model. It doesn’t need to become another model… and it likely will not, however much the fantasy persists.

There will be more than 1 or 2 ways of engaging content… it will not be all on-demand or all scheduled or all through walled gardens.

Some version of The Bundle will survive. But it will have to be cheaper than YouTubeTV and Hulu are currently offering. The old business model for cable bundling was the idea that The Bundle delivered access to each channel and those channels made their revenues via ad sales. The newer model is that channels demand payment in order for the bundlers to have them on the “dial.” That newer model will either adapt or die…. and if it dies, someone will resurrect it and make their fortune (or expand their fortune). People like surfing channels. It is not going away. The kids are already doing that… on YouTube. There is so much content, new and library, that is lost these days because the delivery tools are still very crude… no matter how effective Netflix is with their top 5 lines of content. Different strokes for different folks and so on and so on and scoobie doobie doo bee.

Someone will create an on-demand ad-free subscription service that will create a consistent revenue base for all libraries that are not streaming under other subscription services. So…