THB #58: Spider-Man & The Analyses of Doom

Amazing opening by Spider-Man: No Way Home, the third film of the Home cycle (Homecoming, Far From Home, No Way Home). $253 million domestic. $334 million international.

Yay!

There is no downside for this for Sony, Marvel, and everyone involved with this film. Congratulations to all, especially Jon Watts, Chris McKenna, Erik Sommers, and the whole team, top to bottom. Top notch movie movie.

It is easily the biggest opening since March 2020 and seems sure to be the biggest Spider-Man movie yet.

No… Two Hundred… Fifty Three Million!

Reading all these theories about “how this happened” is one of the most painful experiences of the year. The desperation to offer “the answer” is just stunning. It’s all too simple and all too complex for the “I know”ers.

All the pieces came together. COVID has seemed more under control. Trailers worked. Ads worked. Idea worked. Leaks worked. Hidden story details worked. Zendaya and Tom worked. And most of all, it was the first 4-quadrant movie since Star Wars 9 at Christmas 2019. Remember 4-quadrants? It’s like a retro term now. But after almost 20 years of Spider-Man, people over 50 have history with the franchise, people 25-49 have history with the franchise, and people under 25 not only have a history, but they had their first Spider-Man launch the multiverse on film for Marvel, with Spider-Man: Into The Spider-verse.

But that’s too many ideas to make writers feel smart, so they pick one angle and try to shove it up the zeitgeist.

Perhaps my favorite is the idea that 20 million people showed up to avoid spoilers. I mean… seriously? Another retro notion is the water cooler conversation. There is that. Yeah. A factor. But spoilers? Oy. That is so inside baseball.

Another notion I love is that Sony had so much time to sell the movie. But the truth is, Sony took a big chance and kept its cards very close to the chest until very late in the release process. They sold one idea. Somehow, Dr. Strange and Peter Parker open up the multiverse and old dead characters from the previous two cycles of movies start showing up. And people liked that idea.

It’s really easy to forget, as members of the media dipped endlessly in internet buzz, that the online fan chatter is not the mainstream. If 10% of this weekend’s audience had ever seen an interview with Andrew Garfield about whether or not he was in the movie, for instance, it would be a miracle. If the kind of fan and media buzz coming off of this film was box office catnip, there would have been a lot more huge hits this year (including West Side Story).

But I digress…

The point of this newsletter today… my real focus of irritation… the oft repeated idea that this changes the game for theatrical.

False.

Like A Quiet Place Part II, F9: The Fast Saga, Black Widow in the summer, with Free Guy as a kicker, then Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings in September, and the October run of Venom: Let There Be Carnage, No Time To Die, Halloween Kills, and Dune, this is a landmark. An important one. The Summer movies showed you could have a $150m domestic movie again. Free Guy showed you could have a multiple of more than 4x a decent opening again. Shang-Chi showed that $200 million was possible. October showed that you could have a run of 4 movies, week after week, open to over $40 million, including our first $90m launch.

Spider-Man: No Way Home almost tripled that $90m Venom 2 launch. Another door shows that it is open.

But the health of the theatrical business, which so many media voices just doesn’t seem interested in engaging with, is not just about giant openings for giant movies. This is not an issue of dispute. Spidey was likely on about half the actual screens in America this weekend, near 20,000. In order for this to happen, you need to have 40,000 screens waiting for these moments. If theatrical was reduced to only these kind of movies with this kind of opening potential, it could not sustain 40,000 screens. It probably would not be able to sustain 20,000. Things continue to spiral down from there.

But on a more immediate level…

The market aside from Spidey’s $253 million this weekend, domestically, was only $22 million.

The market for the last 3 mega-openings was much bigger. Aside from the $177m Star Wars 9 opening in 2019, the other films grossed $70 million. The market aside from the $357 million Avengers: Endgame opening was $44 million. The Avengers: Infinity War $258m opening was $56 million.

It’s easy to take swipes at Nightmare Alley’s opening or West Side Story’s ugly 2nd weekend drop, but neither of these movies could really be expected to be big commercial hits, with their best results.

Little Women opened to $17 million against Star Wars 9, so yes, that is better. But that isn’t what made that weekend beyond Star Wars solid. It was the 3rd weekend of Jumanji 2 and the 6th weekend of Frozen 2 that were #2 and #3, adding a combined $52 million to the weekend. Encanto and Ghostbusters: Afterlife are also holding well… but only $10m combined from them this weekend. That is where things need to change for the exhibition business to be healthy.

Anticipating next weekend, after Sing 2, The Matrix Resurrections, and The King’s Man arrive on Wednesday to make things better, things will be a little screwy because Friday is Christmas Eve, which is traditionally a significantly slow day at the cinemas. But Christmas Day is extra strong, as should be the Sunday with kids out of school on Monday, so it should balance out. Anyway…

Drops of 59%, 59% and 55% for SW9, Endgame, and Infinity War. That 60% drop would put Spider-Man: No Way Home at $101 million.

On the second weekend of Star Wars (the only Christmastime release), there was $125m of non-Star Wars business. For Endgame, $53 million. For Infinity War, $55m.

What will the story be next weekend?

The first Sing did $35m over its opening Christmas weekend. The 2 previous Kingsman movies opened to $36m and $39m. The last Matrix movie opened to $48 million.

So in theory, next weekend’s box office could actually top the Star Wars 9 second weekend of $197 million. It would be a very positive surprise.

If the 3 new titles total only $75 million, even if Spidey holds for $100 million or slightly more… not such good news.

Sorry for all that math on a Sunday night. But sometimes perspective requires math. Or so I keep trying to explain to my 6th grader.

Until tomorrow…