I was going to take the day off… but the bizarre coverage of the May box office continues, so I feel I must say something (briefly, I hope).
Today’s swinging dick headline from Deadline, mimic-ed in Variety, is, “‘Furiosa’ Up In Smoke With $31M-$33M, Lowest Memorial Day Opening In Decades, Might Get Clawed By ‘Garfield’: How Worried Should Hollywood Be About Theatrical? – Saturday Update”
The first version I saw this morning - the trades now write-over stories and headlines like everything is typed in disappearing ink - it was “Worst Memorial Day Opening in 31 Years.”
I will explain why this headline is a hateful con job. But first, let’s consider the coverage of the summer so far.
This is what the trades have offered in May… excuses for The Fall Guy… Kingdom of the Planet of The Apes opening exactly in line with 3 of the 4 modern franchise episodes (but overstated as a season-saving success), more excuses for IF…. and now, Furiosa gets the media boom lowered on it like it punched their grandma.
I am not suggesting that Furiosa - if it ends the 3-day with $28m for the 3-day and $35m for the 4-day - needs to have roses thrown at its feet. I wrote of it 12 days ago:
“Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, which looks like a wild, loud, relentless joy. But don’t forget, no George Miller, whether Maxes, Babes or Penguins, has opened to over $45 million. None of his films have grossed as much as $400 million worldwide. So if Furiosa opens over $50 million, it is a win.
So Furiosa is not going to open to $50 million or even $40 million. And what I thought of as a smart play by Warner Bros - somewhat taking the boy audience for granted and trying to expand the girl audience by playing up the strong female lead - is likely the culprit.
I had not seen the film 12 days ago when I wrote that, but what I was surprised by when I saw the film was that Chris Hemworth’s villain, Dementus, is the most chatty George Miller character since Nicholson in The Witches of Eastwick or Nick Nolte in Lorenzo’s Oil, 32 years ago. For me, as a moviegoer, he was the key to the movie. But if you watch the trailer, he gets in just 2 lines of fairly benign, seemingly expositional dialogue.
Having seen the film, I think the grrrrlpower strategy was a mistake. Warner Bros clearly had dreams of Barbie still dancing in their heads, while the movie’s real step forward was the philosophical evil poetry of Dementus. Lots of great action scenes still, but Young Furiosa was not the fresh element. Nutty Thor-with-a-fake-nose was.
We can discuss what the discussion should be around an opening in the mid-$30 millions on Memorial Day Weekend instead of $45 million for the previous film in the franchise - Miller’s & Max’s biggest opening - opening the summer means. A Mad Max movie without Max. A Furiosa movie without Charlize Theron. Opening Day vs Memorial Day. Etc. That is not why I am writing this today.
What stunned me this morning was the aggression that the Penske trades are showing against exhibition.
Lowest Memorial Day Opening In Decades is a lie of fact.
Deadline clarifies further…
If Furiosa hits at the high end of its current range at $35M, then that’s the lowest Memorial Day weekend opening since 1984’s Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, which did $33.9M.
Again… a lie.
These are the 4-day grosses for 8 Memorial Day Weekend Openers more recent than 1984…
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