THB #530: Norm Of The Week Club 2

Part Two: Challengers & The Fall Guy Are Not Hits

Part One: A Bit of Box Office History

As the industry has focused more and more on opening weekend and on big IP movies to do more of the heavy lifting, so has the media. Each weekend becomes its own little bubble with a strong rhetorical influence of the studios releasing the movies expected to do the biggest numbers. That is their job. They want as much praise as possible when they win and as little negativity as possible when they lose. And every studio will, as history has taught us over and over and over again, ebbs and flows. There have been multiple year runs when it seemed like this studio or that couldn’t miss or couldn’t shoot straight. And every time a good or bad run, journalists act like the world has discovered a new sun or that the existing sun is about to burn out.

The story of 2024, at this point, is that we have had 4 movies that have grossed $100m+ at the domestic box office in the first 4 months of the year and all 4 were released in March. Why?

Only 4 additional films from these last 4 months will gross more than $50 million domestic. Why?

Last year, we had 12 movies open in the first 4 months of the year that grossed over $50 million domestic… that’s 1/3 more successful titles. 5 of the films were released in March (3 over $100m), 1 in January, 3 in February (1 over $100m), and 3 in April (1 over $100m).

It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to figure this out. 33% more movies, spread out more aggressively over the first 4 months of the year (pre-summer) led to a much better result. You can’t blame the marketplace when the content providers are not delivering enough product to meet the demand to which they aspire.

Every movie that opened to over $44 million last year Jan-Apr topped $100 million and the same is true of every movie that opened in the 4 months this year. No movies that opened under $44 million in either year got to more than $100 million.

Going back to 2019, 8 movies grossed over $100 million domestic from a Jan-Apr release window. 15 did over $50 million. Of those 15 total, 7 opened under $44 million. So why could you have a better final gross with a less large opening in 2019 and we haven’t in 2024?

Well, for starters, only 1 of those 7 seeming overachievers opened as late as March… and that was March 1, to be precise. They all opened early enough, into slots not considered to be the top tier of choices, that they had room to run if they had the word of mouth. What Men Want (Feb 8) and Escape Room (Jan 4) opened to what were considered lousy launches of just over $15 million and legged it out to multiples of more than 3x.

What Men Want held well for 4 weekends before it hit $50 million domestic. It opened better than Challengers and held better than Challengers. Even someone like me, who is not a big Challengers fan, would not say that What Men Want is a better movie. But in 2019, there were not media headlines asking when and where Challengers would be streaming even before it was opening. In 2019, there wasn’t the sense that if it wasn’t that good, you would see it on your TV before the leaves changed for the next season… and unless it was a box office smash, it would be available on your TV in 45 days.

What is remarkable is how well theatrical is doing in spite of this misguided sense of speeding things up being good for business. It is only good to de-risk. If you want to de-risk so much, get into another business. Filmed Entertainment is not for you.

Meanwhile, what were the big releases in the first 4 months of 2019? Captain Marvel, US, How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Dumbo, Glass, Shazam!, and Avengers: Endgame.

This year, it was Dune II, Kung Fu Panda 4, Godzilla x Kong, and Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire. And they all performed pretty much as expected. But could any sane person argue that, if you take out Endgame, which was a push into April to add a week to summer, those 6 movies from 2019 ($1.1 billion) would be as close to the 4 from this year ($758m) as they were? The average difference per movie is $51 million for each title. That sure makes this year’s not-so-great line-up look pretty good. It makes the health of theatrical as a part of the society look even better.

But what is a 2024 box office analyst to make of what is right in front of them when they are being encouraged - having spin shoved down their collective throats - to stay inside of the immediate bubble… only look for clues you can see in a very small space.

We already saw the trades running spin on the opening of IF in 2 weekends because, as the marketing campaign suggests, Paramount is already shitting its pants, unable to find a hook that will draw a bigger audience than not-terrible/not-great tracking suggests. (My current advice… go young and stop selling the adult angle. Having not seen it, it seems to be a one-quadrant movie that might expand if its great. Stop selling the parents and get all the kids you can. See if maybe you can find a teenage boy on the planet who might think there is a reason to go. More fart jokes. More lovey-dovey and strong girl stuff.)

Challengers is not a big hit. It will likely get to just over $40 million domestic. I, personally, am sick to death of every movie being spun, for better or worse, against its cost. Overspending is overspending. I’m just talking about box office today.

Challengers is Zendaya’s first movie lead where they are selling the movie on her. Hasn’t it stuck with anyone that social media popularity has NEVER translated into box office in a significant way. I’m not saying it’s a waste of time or doesn’t matter. I am saying that it is a marginal play for anything but awareness.

After all these major studios shrunk the theatrical window because COVID allowed them to make the play they were juiced up about for over a decade, they are now trying to add the weight of fewer releases and smaller marketing budgets, convincing themselves that outdoor and social media marketing will do the job and it has become almost like they want to push the boundaries of logic to the point of failure… and then, it seems, push even harder when the “new wave of thinking” fails to deliver.