THB #513: Disney... The Rest of 2024 in Movies

Iger spends a message to Peltz…

The second most shocking thing about the Disney Shareholder Event today - after the fake Q&A section, which was as poorly done as last quarter’s call was well done - is that almost all the calls they took were about the improvement on the theatrical movie side.

So… let’s take a look at what is on the Disney movie schedule for the rest of 2024.

12 movies still coming right now. I would expect at least a couple more from Searchlight to be added before the summer is over. I really like A Real Pain, the Jesse Eisenberg movie that the division bought out of Sundance… but probably not a major Best Picture contender (screenplay, acting). Remember, back in January, when Disney reset its release schedule dramatically, Searchlight had nothing on the official schedule… now they have 3. So I expect more… but those are not the films that change the sense of Disney’s commercial footprint.

Disney has 6 releases left that are “serious,” in terms of box office potential. They are bolded on the full list below.

April 5 - The First Omen - Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
April 5 - The Greatest Hits - Searchlight Pictures
May 10 - Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - 20th Century Studios
May 31 - Young Woman and the Sea (limited) - Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
Jun 14 - Inside Out 2 - Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
Jun 21 - Kinds of Kindness - Searchlight Pictures
Jul 26 - Deadpool & Wolverine - Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
Aug 16 - Alien: Romulus - Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
Oct 18 - A Real Pain - Searchlight Pictures
Nov 8 - The Amateur - 20th Century Studios
Nov 27 - Moana 2 - Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
Dec 20 - Mufasa: The Lion King - Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures

First up is Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, the 4th in the current run of connected titles (aka The Caesar Cycle) and, presumably, the first of a 3-movie arc. Rick Jaffa and Amanda Silver are the only holdovers from the first trilogy (aside from Exec Producers), which was made in full at 20th Century Fox.

The most recent Apes title, 2017, grossed $491 million worldwide. The one before, 2014, grossed $711 million worldwide.

Will Godzilla x King help or hurt, given that there is a raging monkey leader in that film? Who knows? But a reasonable over/under seems like $500 million worldwide.

Next, Inside Out 2. Disney really needs to push hard on the idea that this is a theatrical film first and for a long window. They should probably announce a Disney+ launch in late October or early November right up front… answer the question that everyone asks with a clear, “This movie will not be available on your TV this summer… we promise.” The original 2015 Inside Out was not considered a slam dunk… and did $859 million worldwide. Personally, I have a kid who almost parallels the age of the young woman in the movie, so I know I am looking forward to this sequel, becoming a full-on teenager. Anything under $700 million will be a disappointment on this one.

Most people I speak to think that Deadpool & Wolverine is the movie to beat for top title this summer... and probably for the entire year.