THB #500: Box Office, Q1, Q2 & July

We just completed Weekend 9 of the box office year. And it hasn’t been pretty.

Like last year, we have had 5 different #1 movies in these first 9 weekends. But the difference is that this year, we had Wonka holding over from December for the first weekend and then Mean Girls on top for 4 weekends. Last year, we had Avatar: The Way of Water for 5.

That lead horse generated $154.6 million in the first 5 weekends last year. This year, $65.1 million.

That $89.5 million difference is, on its own, like losing an entire weekend after just 9 weekends. And a good weekend… what would be the 3rd best weekend of this first 9 weekends of the year.

So the fact that we are only 15% behind last year’s first 9 weekends in total gross is, really, a near miracle. Does that mean we should be celebrating? No. But it also suggests that it is not The Market that is the problem.

There is more…

Last year’s first 2 months had only 4 films from the previous year in its Top 20 grossers. This year, in the same period, 10 of the Top 20 are films that launched last year.

2022 holdovers in Q1 2023: $491 million
2023 holdovers in Q1 2024: $383 million.

But that isn’t the ugly part.

New 2023 movies in Q1 2023: $674 million
New 2024 movies in Q1 2024: $460 million

If you adjust the numbers to count the full Top 16 of new pictures in both years, that adds $40 million to the 2024, which still, obviously, not that great.

One interesting stat is that both this year’s first 2 months and last year’s first 2 months each had 20 wide releases. However, 10 in the Top 20 in this period came from the 5 major studios last year and only 6 such films are in this year Jan/Feb Top 20.

So what happens next?