Yes, you read the headline right.
Thing is, come Tuesday morning, in another Oscar tradition that makes absolutely no sense in 2024, the nominations will be read aloud sometime soon after 5am Los Angeles time. And when that happens, there will be joy and sadness. But what there will not be are any surprises that will figure into the actual winners of Oscars on March 10, a mere 50 days from today.
If you or your film was left out, you really didn’t have any chance to win… though it is an honor to be nominated. It really is. And it really should be.
For me, the word “snub” is a nasty piece of work. The anthropomorphic notion of The Academy, almost 10,000 individuals voting, is absurd on its face. There is no “They.” Not a They that “loves Film X” and not a They that “hates Film Y.” Not a They that is racist and wants to keep out people of color and not a They that doesn’t believe women shouldn’t direct movies.
Now, back when The Academy was well under 5000 members and a branch like the Directors Branch was around 200 members, mostly men, there was a “They.” And there was a bias amongst those members that wasn’t as encouraging about women directing. But as I point out every year, the industry produces a limited, though increasing, number of films directed by women and an even smaller number of films that are there at the start of the season, in August, with a legitimate shot at competing for these nominations.
This season, it’s Greta Gerwig, Justine Triet, Celine Song, Emerald Fennell, Sofia Coppola, and Ava DuVernay. Then there are the reaches that have never been real in this regard: Maggie Betts, Chloe Domont, Nicole Holofcener, Adele Lim, Kelly Reichardt, and Alice Rohrwacher. There are some more that are pure fantasy, no matter how talented these directors who happen to be women.
So in reality, it’s 6 women vs about 35 men (from when the season starts). For even 1 to be nominated is against the odds, before you even start considering the work. Who is more likely to be nominated this year, Sofia Coppola or J.A. Bayona? I would say Sofia… because she has been there before. I really like both films, but I would pick Bayona’s work between them this year. But the only way he breaks into the 5 nominees is if Society of The Snow becomes an equally shocking Best Picture nominee. Film is great. Lots of positive attention. But that thing we all felt since October last year, around All Quiet on the Western Front… not this time. (Personally, I like this movie better.)
Greta is as likely to be nominated for her second film in a row as she has been for the last 6 months or so. When it comes down to it, the only woman with a chance of being nominated this year - a long shot - is Justine Triet, whose film, Anatomy of a Fall, has an extremely passionate following and has the benefit of being International. But as I just said about Bayona, that long shot is virtually impossible if the film doesn’t get a Best Picture nod as well… not because they are directly connected, but because the nods tends to reflect the passions of the overall voting mass.
In the 14 years of the expanded Best Picture group, there are 3 examples of nomination in Best Director and not in Best Picture: Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher, Paweł Pawlikowski for Cold War, and Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round. That last one was in the COVID year, which was also the last time there were fewer than 10 Best Picture titles… just 8 that year. Also of interest, Bennett Miller has only made 3 non-doc features… the only only he was not nominated for Director for was Moneyball, which was nominated for Best Picture. Go figure.
While we are at Best Picture… these 7 will only be a surprise if they aren’t nominated…
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