It’s been a long few years for the movie business. The media has overstated the negative case forever, but particularly in the last 20 years or so, as the rise of the DVD business outgrossed theatrical for a few years… until it stopped doing that and theatrical became the #1 revenue stream for movies again.
In the COVID era, media was ready to shut down theaters altogether and just move onto our couches and La-Z-Boys forever. And then theaters re-opened and in the last 2 years, recovering about 65% of the way in 2022 and this last year, 80% of the way. Five of the Top 20 All-Time Grossers were released in the 25 months since December 2021. Still, media is still waiting for the doors to close like there is some benefit to this in the industry.
As part of this, the most ignorant of us have found ways to turn positives into negatives. For instance, instead of embracing the positive of audiences flocking to premium screens in the last couple of post-COVID years, paying a premium price, some would focus on movies that allegedly suffered from not having as many premium screens available to them, giving yet another excuse to lower-than-expected audience interest in certain films.
As I have argued repeatedly (including yesterday), the primary thing keeping movie theaters from recovering 100%, based on pre-COVID stats, is the lack of movies themselves. Fewer wide releases mean fewer films that have a chance to surprise at the box office or even do reasonable grosses, adding to the overall grosses of each month and year. It’s not complicated. Of course, fewer wide releases mean less risk… in theory. Movies are a business of risk… so not risking is not being in business, essentially.
So, let’s make that #1 on my list of 5 positive steps that I would like to see in 2024…
RELEASE MORE MOVIES
Already explained. Theaters need more content.
Headlines are lovely, but no, Taylor Swift’s $180m domestic and $250m total worldwide were lovely and much needed in the wake of an under-populated fall/holiday film schedule. But they didn’t save the movie theaters and even simialrly successful off-studio projects will not save exhibition in the future.
For that matter, neither Tom Cruise nor Barbie saved the movie industry either. There have been 6 billion-dollar movies since Spider-Man: No Way Home in December 2021. They all mattered. They were all helpful. Avatar 2 generated $400 million more than any of the others.
But it’s not all about the mega-movies, god bless them. I remind you that both Titanic and Avatar had significant chunks sold off within months of release because Fox wasn’t sure they were not over exposed financially. Nobody knows anything.
MORE PREMIUM SCREENS
This one is happening and a little stuck. The count of premium screens in America is just over 2000 among an overall population of about 38,000 screens. But that begs the question of what is “premium?”
Marcus Theaters, for instance, has over 1000 screens, all of which have been converted to lounger seating. But they have very few branded premium screens, preferring to build their own in-house brands, DreamLoungers and UltraScreen. AMC (7700 screens), which has gone heavily into IMAX and Dolby also has its own brand, Prime, and also promotes Laser projection as though it is it premium.
I am not an expert in building premium screens. But it costs money and it takes space. I have seen conversions that don’t change the screen count at some multiplexes and it is clear that some screens are too small for, say, an IMAX screen and would result in fewer screens if they were converted. There is also the ongoing concerns about funding the next round of digital projectors and newer, high-quality sound… all while exhibition’s primary partner, distributors, are settled into shorter windows and delivering fewer movies to draw more people to buy more soda and popcorn.
In Los Angeles, seeing a movie in IMAX or Dolby vs non-premium in the same multiplex can be a $6 difference, a premium of over 30% per ticket. That’s a big bump. And when a movie has any kind of heat, those premiums seats seem to sell like hotcakes.
The fear remains that the screen count will be reduced by some massive amount over the next few years. And there could be some big losses if the number of titles in release does not rebound. The loss of Paramount, if eaten by another studio, could mean even more of a spread between a healthy movie count and an even more serious problem.
One more thing I would suggest that I will keep under this header… find a way to make a couple smaller screens in a 12+ screen multiplex feel special for the arthouse audience. Doesn’t take much. Different wallpaper. Some kind of special lighting. Maybe a small discount on concessions. The audience (older people and hipsters, mostly) is very specialized. Give them something to feel more special about. You don’t need every new, expensive bell and whistle to engage this group… just pretend to care a little.
MORE DISCOUNTING
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