THB #434: Oscargasm - The Horses Are In the Gate... And...

All the contenders have now been seen… and…

The Likely 8

Barbie - Greta Gerwig (Warner Bros)
The Color Purple - Blitz Bazawule (Warner Bros)
The Holdovers - Alexander Payne (Focus Features)
Killers of the Flower Moon - Martin Scorsese (Apple/Paramount)
Maestro - Bradley Cooper (Netflix)
Napoleon - Ridley Scott (Apple/Sony)
Oppenheimer - Christopher Nolan (Universal)
Poor Things - Yorgos Lanthimos (Searchlight)

There is no reason why this list is 8 and not some other number (up to 10). It just turns out that 8 is the number of films I believe are now pretty much locked into a Best Picture nomination.

I also think your Best Picture winner is in this group.

I have embraced the idea of there being a default winner each season and this season, it is Oppenheimer. That doesn’t make it less worthy or less exciting. It just means that if another movie doesn’t assert itself as another wave of excitement that captures the imagination of voters, it will win.

The other huge issue with Best Picture these days is the large number of new international voters. It can easily be argued that “they” changed the landscape of nominees and were greatly responsible for at least 2 of the 4 last Best Picture winners. Where will they land?

Best Director