THB #364: May The 4th Be... Problematic.

I’m finding it hard to focus on anything showbiz without The Strike weighing heavily on my typing hands. It all seems so… small.

I try to believe that my opinion of Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol 3 will mean anything to anyone at this point… a vain conceit while criticizing any Marvel release. And I find myself thinking about how the machinery of the industry keeps churning along (pun considered, though not intended) as the unions, starting with WGA, face dangers made far more dangerous because they are not easily reduced to clever slogans.

“Lock CEOs UP!”

“Trickle Down, You Data Greedy Bastards!”

“Build that wall for writers against a system that was not built for this purpose, but enormously devalues their efforts!”

“I Cringe Binge!”

Just not that exciting.

I have a fun interview with Christa Miller, who is great in Shrinking, waiting in the hopper. Suddenly it feels like I’d be posting her across the picket line. (Nonetheless, it was shot before the strike and it will be up today or tomorrow.)

At this moment, I feel very little excitement that there will be inroads made by this strike anytime soon… because it shouldn’t be happening. I’m not saying that WGA isn’t doing what it needs to do. I’m saying that this strike is 100% on Team AMPTP. It is a choice. We are all guessing at what their ultimate purpose is. Of course, it’s money. But how and why and what pocket are they lining? Still unclear.

But what WGA is asking - and the unions that follow - is a (mostly) reasonable restructuring of how writers get paid after the AMPTP side restructured the entire TV side - and feature films, a bit - without guidance or serious consideration of the people who keep the trains running on time… and so cleverly.

As usual, I personally feel like the unions are not being radical enough in their demands. If you are going to suffer for asking, go after the bigger targets, I say. But calmer heads than my own remind me - too often, over too many strike seasons - that this industry (AMPTP), like others, will only accept incremental change for union members.

So when I finally get to see that list of WGA demands, it is disappointingly generous. Again… not saying it’s wrong. Just saying that a win of every single demand would be… good… not really even painful for AMPTP companies, given what they are spending on so many things in production.

And I don’t really believe in the “bleed the rich” approach to this or any union conflict. The goal is to be the rich, not to redistribute the wealth of those who are the best as getting overpaid. They will always win for themselves. And this is still business.

The Strike will not stop until the AMPTPers decide that they are ready to send everyone back to work. None of us really know when that will be. AMPTP may already have it circled on their calendars. They have made the choice to force a stroke and now they will make the choices to give in to 2/3rds of the demands at 60% of what is being demanded… or something like that. And The Strike will end.

But first, more pain for the workers.

I watched the kinda-remake of White Men Can’t Jump. I think I am under embargo, but even if I wasn’t… the conversation about the film would be about the screenwriting… and the writers would be on strike… and people are out there at the strike prom, trying not to think about the very real consequences of what not working for a few months might mean to them in a very personal way… still on the high of, “Fuck you, Ted!”… but I’m not enjoying that high.

I often remind people that the 2007 strike ended after no one got paid for December and the spring tv season was going to disappear. The argument against accepting a better deal for streaming by AMPTP was that streaming was new and there was no money there yet. Then SAG came up to bat that summer… and the union was divided. They couldn’t get it together to strike, especially after a 3-month stoppage. Same argument by AMPTP… no money in streaming. AFTRA was a threat to SAG, making much easier deals with AMPTP now that they could claim that they had potential jurisdiction on every show, since almost nothing was actually being filmed on film anymore.

Alan Rosenberg was made into a punchline and Ken Howard took the presidency of SAG in September 2009, with a merger of unions on the agenda. Less than a year later, Netflix made their first $100 million-a-year deal for content. Suddenly there was money there. Netflix kept making those deals. The price tag kept multiplying. When it hit $300 million a year, Netflix blinked and started making/buying their own programming, still on a measly 2 floors on Maple Drive. AFTRA, with SAG’s testicles firmly in hand, merged with SAG in March of 2012. Promises made, promises kept.

In 2012, WGA earnings were $343 million.

By 2017, Netflix’s annual content spend hit $10 billion a year… and WGA total earnings were $1.4 billion.

The industry was on steroids. Netflix was spending in a way no one had ever seen before and Wall Street was licking it up like spilled tequila at a frat party.

In 2019, Disney+ launched, joining Netflix, and followed by HBO Max, Paramount+, and Peacock.

By 2021, Netflix’s annual content budget was $18 billion, all these other streamers were overspending… and WGA total earnings were down to $1.13 billion.

Get it? Down.

We can’t blame Netflix for leading everyone else down the overspending primrose path. Netflix could shoot a block of 5th Avenue dead and Wall St would find a rationale to love it and boost its stock 10%. (“Technology needs blood… literal human blood… this is the ingredient that will make these overpriced tech stocks worth the valuation! We swear… again… this time!!!!”)

Nor can we blame Netflix or Zaslav or anyone else for the major adjustment to the number of episodes in what is now considered “a season.” (I continue to believe that once established, the number should be pushed significantly for financial reasons… but that’s a different conversation.)

But we can blame them all for moving the money around so that the union workers have done less well under their new, widely-spread system… so that the rich writers get a lot richer (as producers), the top line actors get richer, but the well-paid working middle class are not only not making what they used to make, but the process of making their nut every year has become painfully challenging as a direct result of the new normal.

And you know, I really want to write about Beau Is Afraid… I went back to see it in a theater again on Monday… and the movie, while parts of it elude my understanding, is endlessly fascinating to me.

But it doesn’t really seem important right now.

The world keeps spinning. There is a lot of horrible stuff happening… and the WGA strike is not Top 5. But in show business… it is. It absolutely is. When I was woken by the rain last night, my 2nd thought after peeing was, “Damn… are people going to be out there on the strike line in the rain in L.A. in May? Brutal.” (Third thought… “did I leave my convertible top down?”)

The Strike, in these early days, is part of everything show business for me.

Paramount Global quarterly this morning… not so great… but who really cares? You know who didn’t affect their weak Q1 results at all? Writers. Will Paramount’s numbers be better by Q3? You betcha. Will WGA still be on strike when that quarter starts in 2 months? Very possibly.

It’s not that I don’t love and respect studios. I actually do. I want them all to succeed. Netflix too. The more money that is winning at the filmed entertainment industry crap table, the better for filmed entertainment. I love movies, of every size and shape and spirit. Streaming is a great gift and if done right, an important part of making the world smaller and real world conflict less likely.

But do me a favor, studios… pay the writers and directors and actors and get them all back to work. The current mess of streaming is going to be fixed by those people making things that the masses will pay to watch in some way, subs or ads. And then I can get back to loving talking about the work… what these people made… how it makes us all feel… without feeling like I should stop enjoying their work until they can enjoy the fruits of that work.

Succession will be over in a couple weeks and then… all that bleak… how to process… smoking Dead Ringers like a crack pipe… Curb Your Enthusiasm will be harder to laugh at… don’t make us all go Yellowjackets.

Until tomorrow…