THB #325: 3 Days To Oscar Voting

So here is the simple question.

Are Academy voters tired of the love party around Everything Everywhere All At Once and the emotionalism of Brendan Fraser or do they want more of it?

In this, you will find the answer to the winners of the Oscars in 13 days.

This, as it has turned out, is that tipping point moment in Oscar Phase II when there is a train on which voters can choose to board or leave in the station.

The illusion of an Academy “they” always irks me… though there is such thing as a wave of agreement. But the ideas that “they” refuse to nominate black actresses or that “they” won’t let a women win are just silly. The reasons these things are so rare occur years before each Oscar race, when certain films are made and are not made. That is where the real fight for inclusion in this industry must be… but it’s much harder than screaming about “snubs,” a word that is like fingernails on a chalkboard to me. You snub a kid at your birthday party, not inviting them when almost everyone else is invited. 9500 individuals who are part of the same voting group aren’t snubbing anyone.

But I digress…

Oscar voters tend to vote their passion, especially in Picture, but that passion can be turned by a good narrative. In this season of nothing locking in, even as we went into this weekend, the media narrative is now Everything & Brendan in those top 6 slots (Picture, Director, Actors). Layer that with “the first Chinese everything” to win and you have a special inclusion layer that can be embraced or rejected.

And there is this truth… every single one of us who talks to voters about their feelings has heard every single movie dragged by some percentage of those whom we talk. The reason people like me still hold out the possibility of All Quiet on the Western Front shocking the awards world (with no directing or acting nods) is that the film, which was not a serious Best Picture focus of Netflix until fairly late in the game after their overhype killed Glass Onion, is probably the one Best Picture nominee that generates the fewest negative comments.