THB #324: Oscar Precursors 4 Days To Final Voting

So it occurred to me that in this weekend of nearly invisible (outside of the industry obsessed with the awards) Major Awards, we on Team Obsessive are about to be overwhelmed with theories about what the wins/losses at the PGA and SAG/AFTRA awards mean to Oscar.

So in the name of “please stop,” I’m going to do the analysis before the first award is handed out.

So first, PGA. And the nominees are:

Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale

So… Black Panther and Glass Onion are not Oscar Best Picture nominated. Missing from the list and an actual threat to win Best Picture is All Quiet on The Western Front, a precursor-based impossible… but it’s an odd year.

Avatar: The Way of Water, Tár and The Whale are highly unlikely winners at either show.

The would-be-a-surprise winners that are also seen as could-be-a-surprise Oscar upsetters would…