THB #307: Oscar Noms Morning

The big surprise of Oscar nod morning (here are the nominees) was not really that much of a surprise… All Quiet On The Western Front has been getting a lot of positivity for months from voters. I don’t agree personally… but why would anyone care but me? I like the film, but think it’s been overrated severely. But Netflix, which remains loaded with brilliant minds even if they f-ed up Glass Onion, reset to focus on All Quiet in the last few weeks before nominations and even on nominations week. They knew it was well loved, but convincing voters that it was not a wasted vote to put it in their Best Picture Top 3 was the challenge… and they succeeded in closing the deal.

Apple got focused on Brian Tyree Henry about 6 weeks ago and brought that home.

Second biggest surprise is Triangle of Sadness getting both Picture and Director nods (as well as the less surprising Original Screenplay)… especially after Dolly DeLeon didn’t get a Supporting Actress nomination. Gotta give it to Neon. There is a lot of pushback on the film and they just kept plowing away. Triangle is the 2nd lowest grossing Best Picture nominee this season, after Women Talking.

As of 10 days ago, here was the theatrical earnings list…

Top Gun Maverick - on TV, full theatrical - $719 million
Avatar: The Way of Water - in theaters, full theatrical - $539 million
Elvis - on TV, full theatrical - $151 million
Everything Everywhere All at Once - on TV, full theatrical - $70 million
The Fabelmans - in Theaters - $13.8 million
The Banshees of Inisherin - on TV and in theaters - $9.2 million
Tár - in theaters - $5.7 million
Triangle of Sadness - in theaters - $4.2 million
Women Talking - in theaters - under $1 million

And of course, All Quiet on the Western Front with no box office.

That’s more than $1.4 billion domestic (and growing) for the Top 3 nominees and just over $100 million for the other 7. But it is worth noting that The Academy made choices for films that have had and currently have theatrical releases, with the one exception.

Of course, it is hard to suggest that there is any one nomination more shocking than Andrea Riseborough getting nominated for the nearly unseen To Leslie. $27,322 worldwide… a UK-only release so far. One wonders if that will change today and someone will pick up rights to the film in the U.S. for theatrical and streaming distribution. Momentum Films has had distribution rights, but didn’t release the film in America. You can buy it online. There is not even physical media to buy.

Riseborough is one of the great actresses of her generation… and is barely recognizable from film to film. She is also a bit of a Luddite, not owning a computer or being on any social media. I assume someone called her this morning.

Another late entry was Paul Mescal in Aftersun, an A24 film that hasn’t been on more than 92 screens since its October release, but developed a strong following, led by National Society of Film Critics. A win for the critics!!!

The double dip in Supporting Actress for Everything Everywhere All at Once pushed out any nominations for the remarkable, though long, list of actresses in Women Talking. I feared the worst, but they got Best Picture and Sarah Polley got an adapted screenplay nod, so that is some recompense… not enough really.

I hate the word “snub,” but I have to use it as regards Brett Morgen and Moonage Daydream… continuing the snub for the quite brilliant Jane, which was another “found footage” doc that was so much more than that. It’s also a bit ridiculous that they haven’t nominated Matthew Heineman’s last couple of films, which are both landmarks in the form that will be watched for many decades to come to understand some very hard American history. And the inability for Ondi Tinomer’s Last Plane Home is a bit of a surprise to boot.

Lots of the talk about nominations were more about inclusion than about reality. Almost none of them happened. And no one should be surprised. Seven of the twenty acting nominees are "of color.” Best Picture is, aside from Everything Everywhere, completely white. Daniel Kwan also keeps that from being the case in Director.

The conversation from here on in with be The Banshees of Inisherin vs Everything Everywhere All At Once… interestingly acing out all three of the most powerful individual awards consultants while continuing the muscle flex by Searchlight and A24, which used to lean heavily on those consultants and have evolved. (Everyone hires consultants, but I am speaking about high-end strategy for these films.) I expect that All Quiet on the Western Front wins Best International Film easily and nothing else. But to be so nominated is an amazing and respectable feat.

Until tomorrow…