THB #282: 13 Weeks To Oscar - The New Default?

I hinted at this in last week’s Oscar newsletter. I now think that we have a new default Best Picture winner. The Banshees of Inisherin.

Why?

The film is not universally beloved… but I don’t hear many, in any, people saying that they dislike it. And God knows, I am hearing a lot of people wanting to talk about how much they hate this movie or that. For those who are not in love with the film, the alternate seems to be at least “not bad.”

I am not saying, to be clear, that Banshees WILL win. I am saying that it is the movie of the group that seems likely to be nomination that seems to be the most universally liked right now. There is a ton of passion for other titles and that can ultimately lead to a win for another one of these movies, no question. But Banshees feels closest to a consensus builder right now… to me.

Second place in consensus building potential right now is, for me, Women Talking. I know… seems impossible in some way. It’s just… women talking. But it’s not. The art and the craft in this film are completely unexpected for so many viewers I talk to about it. But that is the thing. Too many people have not made the decision to watch the film at this point. Of all the top titles in play right now, this is the one that I find the fewest people have watched… followed, in the older demo, by Everything Everywhere All At Once and The Whale, which is getting a late start.

This is a very divisive season of movies.

No one is going to get into a fistfight over The Fabelmans. But the only voices I have been hearing who hold the film in as high esteem as they do its co-writer and director are in media. It’s unusual. People want it to be The Movie… but they just don’t. And I’m not talking a few voices. I have heard it, surprisingly consistently, from dozens of voters and a lot of non-voters as well. Same complaints.

I had a rumble on Twitter over the weekend over Babylon. Some people hate it. They seem to find it personally insulting. They seem to think Damien Chazelle is just looking for attention. Not me. When a movie from a filmmaker whose intentions I know are serious offers something that doesn’t make sense to me at first, my response is - perhaps after a beat - to try to figure out why that choices was made. As I wrote on Friday, this movie unfolded for me once I took the time to see past its extreme moments. And maybe others have worked just as hard and will always see it as elephant shit. That’s okay. As a voter said to me recently, “You shouldn’t have to work that hard to get it.” And I understand that too. (I don’t agree… but I get it.)

Tár. This one is all in… or all out. Everyone is astonished by Cate Blanchett’s work. But the rest is a hornet’s nest of Todd Field pushing audiences, challenging them, losing many of them, but creating a deep love in enough, it seems, to get a passel of nominations.

Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar: The Way of Water, and Elvis have a certain weight on them because they are so popular. Avatar 2 has the hardest road in the trio, though I expect it, like the other two, to be nominated. This could change as people actually see the film. Of course, some of the people in the Academy demo - old people - just have no interest. Some don’t want to go to a theater. Some don’t want to wear glasses. Some just aren’t interested in very tall blue people. Elvis is one of those movies that plays so much better on a big screen, where Baz Luhrmann can control your attention almost completely. And Top Gun Maverick… hmmm… It’s Top Gun F-ing Maverick. Is that really what The Academy wants to do… even if its the movie that a lot of people have enjoyed the most this year?

Netflix is doing a great job promoting Glass Onion (even if the outdoor is kinda ugly and doesn’t really sell the movie in any way that doesn’t suggest they think you are already sold and locked in). But people who have seen the film recently seem to like it. Like it. That’s called damning with faint praise. I can’t imagine this title not making it… but there are people who are really intense about The Woman King and Living and Thirteen Lives and even She Said.

A part of me would be shocked if what has been pretty much the status quo for a while changes. But there are more than a half-dozen titles that are still pushing really hard. And as suggested above… there are some windows that are slightly ajar.

Hell… the trailer of Oppenheimer could get nominated for Best Picture this season if it could be nominated for Best Picture. It’s that kind of season.

Charts haven’t changed my… except for some subtractions.

Best Picture

Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking

Also in the running…
Empire of Light
Living
A Man Called Otto
She Said
Thirteen Lives
Till
The Whale
The Woman King

Best Actor

A shockingly thin year here… but also still flexible.

Austin Butler - Elvis
Tom Cruise - Top Gun Maverick
Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser - The Whale
Bill Nighy - Living

Also in the running…
Tim Hanks - A Man Called Otto

Best Actress

Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
Cate Blanchett - Tár
Margot Robbie - Babylon
Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Olivia Colman - Empire of Light

Also in the running…
Ana de Armas - Blonde
Viola Davis - The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler - Till
Jennifer Lawrence - Causeway
Rooney Mara - Women Talking
Carey Mulligan - She Said

Best Supporting Actress

Jessie Buckley - Women Talking
Hong Chau - The Whale
Claire Foy - Women Talking
Nina Hoss - TÁR
Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All Together

Also in the running…
Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
Judith Ivey - Women Talking
Zoe Kazan - She Said
Samantha Morton - She Said
Mariana Treviño - A Man Called Otto

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
Tom Hanks - Elvis
Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans
Brad Pitt - Babylon
Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Also in the running…
Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway
David Lynch - The Fabelmans
Mark Rylance - Bones and All
Ben Whishaw - Women Talking

Best Director

BEST DIRECTOR
James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
Damien Chazelle - Babylon
Todd Field - Tár
Sarah Polley - Women Talking
Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans

Next up…
Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin

Also in the running…
Darren Aronofsky - The Whale
Baz Luhrmann - Elvis
Joseph Kosinski - Top Gun Maverick

Until tomorrow…