THB #28: Quick Box Office

  
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September 24-26 domestic box office was a total of $38.8 million

October 1-3 started the uptick with Venom: Let There Be Carnage, $90 million open. Plus The Addams Family 2 with $17.3 million. $129m total.

October 8-10. Add No Time To Die with $55 million. Venom 2 off 65%. Addams 2 off 42%. $109m total.

October 15-17. Add Halloween Kills with $49.4 million. Bond off 57%. Venom 2 off 48%. Addams 2 off 30%. $109.3m total

October 22-24. Add Dune with $41 million. Halloween 2 off 71%. Bond off 49%. Venom 2 off 44%. Ron Gone Wrong new with $7.3 million. Addams 2 off 36%. $96m total.

October 29-31. Nothing new over $6.5 million (My Hero Academia: World Heroes' Mission, $6.4 million). Dune off 62%, Halloween off 40%. Bond off 37%. Venom off 38%. Antlers and Last Night in Soho open to $4.2 million and $4.3 million. $64.5m total.

November 5-7. Eternals opens to $71 million. Dune off 50%. Bond off 22%. Venom 2 off 22%. Ron off 5%. $109.5m total.

November 12-14. Clifford The Big Red Dog only open over $2 million with $16.4 million. Eternals off 61%. Dune off 29%. Bond off 24%. Venom 2 off 10%. Ron off 38%. $70.4m total.

Is there reason to feel good about Eternals “only” dropping 61% (which may well become 65% or worse in finals)? No. It’s normal. If it opened to $90 million or something like that, sure. If there was a big movie opening against its second weekend, sure. But Venom, 65%. Bond, 57%. Halloween, 71%. Dune, 62%. Normal. It’s not a disastrous drop either. But had it had a major release opening this weekend (like Venom, Bond, and Halloween did), it surely would have been down over 70%.

On the indie-ish side - a Focus release with national TV ads ins’t really an indie - the Belfast opening is… okay. The French Dispatch hold is… okay. The Spencer hold is… okay.

Now keep in mind… recent history has shown that Oscar isn’t a box office size obsessive. None of these three movies has a trajectory suggesting as much as or much more than $20 million domestic. But that is not at all disqualifying. It’s just not great box office. Not when Wes Anderson’s 2 films for Searchlight did $32 million and $59 million. And Spencer probably won’t match Jackie’s $14 million domestic. Belfast may well pass In America’s $15.5 million from 20 years ago… but not by much.

But again… not a blockade for Oscar nominations. And box office success has actually been a strike against Oscar winners for 12 years now.

Quick enough?

Until tomorrow…