THB #268: 16 Weeks to Oscar - Charts B4 The NY Storm

Wednesday (11/30) was the Los Angeles premiere of Will Smith’s Emancipation. The final pieces of the Oscar season puzzle are unveiled next Monday and Tuesday… Avatar: The Way of Water and A Man Called Otto.

Is there really anything to do besides cross the “t”s and dot the “i”s?

New York Film Critics Circle meets today (Friday, December 2) to offer the first awards that mean anything. So what and who could they make a difference for as the machine chugs towards Oscar nominations, with voting starting in 6 weeks?

Last year NYFCC was the real start of the move towards Drive My Car being nominated for Best Picture and ultimately, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay. This year, the movie that would love to get that send off and could continue to gather heat is Decision To Leave. Park Chan-wook is a master, it won Best Director at Cannes, and it is already the South Korean entry for International Film.

Aside from that, in Best Picture, NYFCC could made a real positive impact on Armageddon Time, Living, RRR, Thirteen Lives, Pinocchio, Till, The Whale, The Woman King or The Wonder with a win.

If they vote for Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tár or Women Talking, that would be counted as an important get, but not really the definitive driver of their ultimate Best Picture inclusion.

There is also the very real chance they will just go with the flow in this category.

In Best Actress, Danielle Deadwyler, Ana de Armas, Carey Mulligan, Taylor Russell, and surprisingly, Jennifer Lawrence could have their pushes invigorated significantly by a win here. Olivia Colman and Viola Davis are veteran beloveds, but a nod couldn’t hurt. And I don’t think Michelle Yeoh needs any help… but she might, so winning would matter.

In Best Supporting Actress, there are some theorizing that NYFCC might oh-so-cleverly give this award to Michelle Williams. But I hope they don’t. Her role really is the most dominant in her film, even if the story is about her son. To poke at the season instead of embracing the many worthy truly-supporting performances this season would be sad. Jamie Lee Curtis and any one actress from Women Talking could benefit greatly from a win here. And it would be critical to an ongoing hard push for Nina Hoss, Hong Chau, Samantha Morton, Zoe Kazan or Kerry Condon.

In Best Actor, Brendan Fraser seems likely, but it would not be shocking for NYFCC to decide to push someone who needs support more, like Bill Nighy or Colin Farrell.

In Supporting Actor, there are so many ways they could go. There are no real locks in the category, as far as Oscar goes. No one doesn’t need the help. Easy to imagine Ke Huy Quan as a statement. Would love to see Brian Tyree Henry, but not counting on it. Even Jeremy Strong or David Lynch or Ethan Hawke would not shock me.

In Director, there a ton of choices that would not be surprising, but would be away from the herd. I don’t think it will be Spielberg… but who knows? Chazelle, Polley, Field, McDonagh or Del Toro wouldn’t shock. Joseph Kosinski would shock… but be so clever.

OSCAR CHARTS!!!

There are some changes to how I see the most likely 10 in Best Picture at this point. I’m still including Avatar: The Way of Water, even though I haven’t seen it. This could change. Or become a stronger position next week.

I’m finally getting to see Babylon a second time this weekend, but I have to acknowledge that, especially in light of the field, this movie is sticking with me in unexpected ways. I am pretty sure it will be nominated… but more shockingly, it is feeling like the “underdog” movie that could shock the world and take Best Picture from behind. The “elephant shit” opening is a blessing and a curse. It’s a curse because some people will never forgive the film. It’s a blessing because an elephant spraying diarrhea all over the camera is a bit like the Omaha Beach assault in Saving Private Ryan… it’s so shocking that it changes how you watch the rest of the film.

I honestly only think 3 or 4 of my projected nominees are locks for a nomination. I do think the rest of the list is more likely than not… but none of them have a feeling of being absolute.

For instance, if the Entertainments segment of potential nominees include Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Glass Onion, and Top Gun: Maverick, one can love all the films and still shrug their shoulders about a Best Picture nomination. Aside from Austin Butler, do any of these films even get a single acting nomination? There are a few possibles, but not anything you can build a Best Picture campaign on… at least not until you get some surprise acting nominations.

I don’t think Emancipation has any business continuing in the conversation about awards. However… voting blocks happen. And yes, I will admit that I am talking about people who will vote for movies made by and starring Black people. If Till and The Woman King and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever are pushed aside and there is a focus on Emancipation - the worst of the 4 movies, in my view - it could happen. There is no “never” when you have people trying as hard as Team Emancipation to move the ball uphill. I don’t think it will happen. I would be sad if it did happen. But it could happen.

And while I am there… this currently list is pretty damned Caucasian. Everything Everywhere All At Once is the only title here led by someone of color. I tend to think this is a Phase II conversation (between nominations and the final vote), but it could rise as an issue sooner. And it could also be tamped down by noms for one of the films made by and led by people of color.

Best Picture

Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking

Also in the running…
Armageddon Time
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Emancipation
Empire of Light
Living
A Man Called Otto
Pinocchio
She Said
Thirteen Lives
Till
The Whale
The Woman King

Best Actor

A shockingly thin year here… but also still flexible.

Austin Butler - Elvis
Tom Cruise - Top Gun Maverick
Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser - The Whale
Bill Nighy - Living

Also in the running…
Diego Calva - Babylon
Daniel Craig - Glass Onion
Tim Hanks - A Man Called Otto

Best Actress

The category is getting interesting. Blanchett has been a prohibitive favorite, but there is a large group that doesn’t love Tár and while there are many who will be disgusted by some of Babylon, Margot Robbie is working her ass off. Audiences love that. What she is doing is not really as complex as Blanchett… but it is a marathon run at a sprinter’s pace. That is the thing of upsets.

Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
Cate Blanchett - Tár
Margot Robbie - Babylon
Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Olivia Colman - Empire of Light

Also in the running…
Ana de Armas - Blonde
Viola Davis - The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler - Till
Jennifer Lawrence - Causeway
Rooney Mara - Women Talking
Carey Mulligan - She Said

Best Supporting Actress

So many amazing choices. The best category of this year’s acting categories. All 5 of these guesses getting in would be equally surprising as an entirely different group of 5 getting in… there are that many great performances.

Jessie Buckley - Women Talking
Hong Chau - The Whale
Claire Foy - Women Talking
Nina Hoss - TÁR
Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All Together

Also in the running…
Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
Laura Dern - The Son
Judith Ivey - Women Talking
Zoe Kazan - She Said
Janelle Monae - Glass Onion
Samantha Morton - She Said
Samantha Morton - The Whale
Emma Thompson - Matilda
Mariana Treviño - A Man Called Otto
Kate Winslet - Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Supporting Actor

I am more confident of these guesses than in Supporting Actress, but again, it could easily flip. I think Hirsch and Pitt are locks. Gleeson and Hanks next (though there is so much negativity around Hanks’ performance that Otto could drive his constituency to Actor).

Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
Tom Hanks - Elvis
Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans
Brad Pitt - Babylon
Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Also in the running…
Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
Ethan Hawke - Raymond & Ray/The Black Phone
David Lynch - The Fabelmans
Edward Norton - Glass Onion
Mark Rylance - Bones and All
Jeremy Strong - Armageddon Time
Ben Whishaw - Women Talking

Best Director

At this moment, I am pretty sure that Todd Field is the only one of these Top 5 that are on the bubble. Whether you love his film or not, the complexity of the directorial vision is undeniable… and remember, directors vote for directors. It is possible that Cameron could fall if his film falls flat… but I wouldn’t bet on it. Lots of amazing work. But I think this is pretty close to where things will land.

BEST DIRECTOR
James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
Damien Chazelle - Babylon
Todd Field - Tár
Sarah Polley - Women Talking
Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans

Also in the running…
Darren Aronofsky - The Whale
Ryan Coogler - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Guillermo Del Toro - Pinnochio
Rian Johnson - Glass Onion
Baz Luhrmann - Elvis
Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
Sam Mendes- Empire of Light
Joseph Kosinski - Top Gun Maverick

Until tomorrow…