THB #257: 18 Weeks To Oscar - New Lists

Okay, sports fans… only one huge horse is still running in silence (Avatar: The Way of Water) and there is A Man Called Otto, which has been discounted by most everyone, but when it’s Tom Hanks, you never know.

All of a sudden, people awoke to the idea that there might be a significant footprint from commercial theatrical this year… which anyone with a working brain has known since mid-summer. Top Gun Maverick, Elvis, and the less commercial but very financially successful indie, Everything Everywhere All At Once. All really well-liked hits since July.

Are they all locks? No. None of them are. But odds are very good that all 3 will get nominated and it’s almost impossible to image that at least 2 will.

The Fabelmans is suffering some backlash lately… but putting aside what film will ultimately win, the odds of it not getting at least 8 nominations are very, very low. And there is every possibility that it will lead in nomination with 11 or 12.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever has gotten a weirdly negative response from some critics, but not only do I think that many of them have misread the movie, but the only real danger for this film not ending up with a Best Picture nod, amongst many other nods, is the idea that it is somehow not a big enough hit. I have little doubt it will be a big enough hit. That it was nominated the first time was a bigger get than the second nom will be.

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story will get all the power that Netflix has to offer. That’s a lot.

Really, the biggest danger to their campaign is over-the-top stuff like this, shot from a drone, as Netflix turned the Academy Museum dome into a series of selfie stations like Disney does for Marvel movies. It’s a strong, small comic thriller, not Wakanda in silk and linen.

So… that’s 6 or 7 movies locked into the starting gate.

So what films get the 3 or 4 other slots… which to be clear, are not, in my view, slots of secondary value. If we have learned anything in the last number of Oscar seasons, it’s that size doesn’t matter… except perhaps that works against more commercially successful movies.

To my eye, there are 7 films seriously competing for those slots, here in order of which ones I think are most likely.
Women Talking
Avatar: The Way of Water
Tár
Babylon
The Woman King
The Whale
Pinocchio

I am embargoed on Babylon, but will say this. It is a remarkable and sizeable piece of work. The actors are working very, very hard.

It also reminds me of one of my beloved films, Blake Edwards’ S.O.B. (which stands for Standard Operating Bullshit) in various ways, but in particular a running gag about one character experiencing every bodily function in the course of the film. Here, we get pretty much every bodily function within the first 8 min or so… then there is another 3 hours of movie.

I am not embargoed on The Whale, which I will write about in time. Suffice it to say that Brendan Fraser goes a hugely emotional performance, the rest of the cast of 4 is excellent, and that I realized how much like a Mike Figgis movie it was about halfway through and now think of the film as Eating Las Vegas.

That leaves me with…

MY CURRENT TOP 10 (in alphabetical order)
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking

And still in the running but climbing uphill…
Armageddon Time
Babylon
Empire of Light
Living
A Man Called Otto
Pinocchio
She Said
Thirteen Lives
The Woman King
The Whale
The Wonder

And now, onto the other Top 5 categories…