THB #257: 18 Weeks To Oscar - New Lists

Okay, sports fans… only one huge horse is still running in silence (Avatar: The Way of Water) and there is A Man Called Otto, which has been discounted by most everyone, but when it’s Tom Hanks, you never know.

All of a sudden, people awoke to the idea that there might be a significant footprint from commercial theatrical this year… which anyone with a working brain has known since mid-summer. Top Gun Maverick, Elvis, and the less commercial but very financially successful indie, Everything Everywhere All At Once. All really well-liked hits since July.

Are they all locks? No. None of them are. But odds are very good that all 3 will get nominated and it’s almost impossible to image that at least 2 will.

The Fabelmans is suffering some backlash lately… but putting aside what film will ultimately win, the odds of it not getting at least 8 nominations are very, very low. And there is every possibility that it will lead in nomination with 11 or 12.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever has gotten a weirdly negative response from some critics, but not only do I think that many of them have misread the movie, but the only real danger for this film not ending up with a Best Picture nod, amongst many other nods, is the idea that it is somehow not a big enough hit. I have little doubt it will be a big enough hit. That it was nominated the first time was a bigger get than the second nom will be.

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story will get all the power that Netflix has to offer. That’s a lot.

Really, the biggest danger to their campaign is over-the-top stuff like this, shot from a drone, as Netflix turned the Academy Museum dome into a series of selfie stations like Disney does for Marvel movies. It’s a strong, small comic thriller, not Wakanda in silk and linen.

So… that’s 6 or 7 movies locked into the starting gate.

So what films get the 3 or 4 other slots… which to be clear, are not, in my view, slots of secondary value. If we have learned anything in the last number of Oscar seasons, it’s that size doesn’t matter… except perhaps that works against more commercially successful movies.

To my eye, there are 7 films seriously competing for those slots, here in order of which ones I think are most likely.
Women Talking
Avatar: The Way of Water
Tár
Babylon
The Woman King
The Whale
Pinocchio

I am embargoed on Babylon, but will say this. It is a remarkable and sizeable piece of work. The actors are working very, very hard.

It also reminds me of one of my beloved films, Blake Edwards’ S.O.B. (which stands for Standard Operating Bullshit) in various ways, but in particular a running gag about one character experiencing every bodily function in the course of the film. Here, we get pretty much every bodily function within the first 8 min or so… then there is another 3 hours of movie.

I am not embargoed on The Whale, which I will write about in time. Suffice it to say that Brendan Fraser goes a hugely emotional performance, the rest of the cast of 4 is excellent, and that I realized how much like a Mike Figgis movie it was about halfway through and now think of the film as Eating Las Vegas.

That leaves me with…

MY CURRENT TOP 10 (in alphabetical order)
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking

And still in the running but climbing uphill…
Armageddon Time
Babylon
Empire of Light
Living
A Man Called Otto
Pinocchio
She Said
Thirteen Lives
The Woman King
The Whale
The Wonder

And now, onto the other Top 5 categories…

Last time I did charts, I went Supporting Actress first. Let’s mix it up and start with Best Actor.

This season, this is the weakest category on the top part of the board. It’s not that there aren’t many good performances out there. It’s just that there are only 3 titles in my guesses for Best Picture that are led my male characters.

BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler - Elvis
Tom Cruise - Top Gun Maverick
Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser - The Whale
Bill Nighy - Living

Also in the running…
Brad Pitt - Babylon
Diego Calva - Babylon
Tim Hanks - A Man Called Otto
Hugh Jackman - The Son

The most likely Actor to leap into the nominations slot is Pitt, who is magnificently droll throughout Babylon. It’s a performance where the camera capturing every line in his face and his rough voice doing most of the work. Nighy is the most vulnerable, as it will be the hardest film to get voters to watch. Next most vulnerable is probably Tom Cruise, who I am guessing will do one or two SAG events as his entire award season effort… which could cost him. After all, we’ve seen the performance before.

And now, what is maybe the toughest category…

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett - Tár
Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
Margot Robbie - Babylon
Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Olivia Colman - Empire of Light

Also in the running…
Ana de Armas - Blonde
Viola Davis - The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler - Till
Jennifer Lawrence - Causeway
Rooney Mara - Women Talking
Carey Mulligan - She Said
Florence Pugh - The Wonder
Taylor Russell - Bones and All

The 8 “in the running” performances are pretty amazing. I believe that the top 4 Actresses are pretty sure bets. While Olivia Colman is a beloved veteran who does great work in this film, under the right circumstances, someone from the rest of the list could leap into the nominations group, with the first in line being Viola Davis, Rooney Mara, and Carey Mulligan.

Margot Robbie, now that we have seen the film and who I had in Supporting previously, is pretty much a lock. You will never see anyone work that hard in a role, throwing herself into every wild moment. It is not a terribly complex emotional performance, as the script doesn’t call for it. But her character will exhaust audiences and impress even audiences that don’t like the film very much.

Another tough category in The Oscar Season of The Woman™…

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley - Women Talking
Hong Chau - The Whale
Claire Foy - Women Talking
Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All Together
Samantha Morton - She Said

Also in the running…
Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
Laura Dern - The Son
Nina Hoss - TÁR
Judith Ivey - Women Talking
Zoe Kazan - She Said
Vanessa Kirby - The Son
Janelle Monae - Glass Onion
Samantha Morton - The Whale
Sadie Sink - The Whale
Mariana Treviño - A Man Called Otto
Emma Thompson - Matilda
Kate Winslet - Avatar: The Way of Water
Letitia Wright - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Honestly, this category could go upside down and inside out. With Williams and Robbie going lead, there are a total of no absolute locks in this category. But wow, are there a lot of great supporting performances. A ton of firepower.

You have to figure that someone will get at least one nod for Women Talking. And Jamie Lee Curtis has been ubiquitous lately. But it would not be remotely shocking to see Nina Hoss or Emma Thompson or Kerry Condon accelerate. There are 3 amazing Supporting turns opposite Fraser in The Whale and people will pick a favorite… and hopefully not cross each other out of any nom. We haven’t really gotten a taste of Kate Winslet in the marketing materials for Avatar TWoW yet… which could mean they are saving something special to amaze us all and to let one of the most awarded actresses ever break the mo-cap acting award barrier.

Out of this list of 19 performances, I could probably yank 8 off the list without fear of being wrong… but this is such a fluid category that I am not ready to do that quite yet

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
Tom Hanks - Elvis
Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans
Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway

Also in the running…
Ethan Hawke - Raymond & Ray/The Black Phone
Anthony Hopkins - Armageddon Time
David Lynch - The Fabelmans
Edward Norton - Glass Onion
Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Mark Rylance - Bones and All
Jeremy Strong - Armageddon Time
Ben Whishaw - Women Talking

Once again, great performances… but not clear nominees. If there is a lock, it’s Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans, but it’s a Bea Straight, which means - if you don’t know - that it is really a cameo with a great speech. Given the kind of field it is, he seems the most likely to get in. But really, you could take any 5 amongst these 13 and I would not be shocked or, really, argue.

Last but never least…

BEST DIRECTOR
James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
Damien Chazelle - Babylon
Todd Field - Tár
Sarah Polley - Women Talking
Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans

The 2 changes in this chart are the addition of Chazelle and Field in the Top 5. Why? Because I think Babylon may change a few things. I don’t mean this as the insult it sounds like, but no one has directed more in one movie this year than Chazelle (except, perhaps, Cameron). It’s insane. So I think that could undermine the Daniels and their also-relentless effort by pulling some of those votes.

As for Coogler, if Chazelle gets that kind of support from directors, the overall energy of the category changes and I think Todd Field, who has made a movie of deep serious ideas, could displace Ryan Coogler, who didn’t bring as much spectacle to Wakanda Forever as he did to Black Panther. (I personally kinda like the new film better.)

Polley made something that is so unexpected and while some men have a hard time, every woman will vote for her. More men should vote for her work here.

And Jim & Steven are Jim & Steven. Jim is more vulnerable… but we haven’t seen the movie yet and he really finds a way to deliver the unexpected.

On the other hand… these 4 could be close on the heels…

Ryan Coogler - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Baz Luhrmann - Elvis
Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin

Coogler is respected and did wonderful work… but it’s not the visual surprise that the first film was. Daniels made something wonderful… but within The Academy, it may be a little too wild and niche to be assured a nomination.

Luhrmann and McDonagh are veterans of great skill, neither of whom have been nominated for Best Director before. Luhrmann’s film is not as magical on a TV. McDonagh’s may feel too much like it works on a TV for the branch voters.

And let’s not forget the 5 additional directors who have delivered the goods in a way that keeps their hopes alive in a real way.

Also in the running…
Darren Aronofsky - The Whale
Guillermo Del Toro - Pinocchio
Rian Johnson - Glass Onion
Sam Mendes- Empire of Light
Joseph Kosinski - Top Gun Maverick

The Whale comes from a play and Aronofsky rises above… but not completely. Pinnochio is animation and much as I agree that animation is for adults, a tough get, even for The Guillermo. Rian is young and brilliant and will get a lot of nominations before he is done, but a comedy whodunit is unlikely to pull the nod. Mendes has been Academy catnip, but Empire of Light is not in one take and it’s just not resonating as we all hoped. And Top Gun Maverick feels like it made itself. It didn’t. But it’s not unfair to say that a lot of what we take away from the film we took away before… decades before.

Until tomorrow…