THB #236: How Should You Feel About Halloween Ends' Opening?

There isn’t much news out there… at least until Netflix’s quarterly release later this week. So the topic amongst box office writers this weekend was, again, the opening of a movie that did well, but didn’t change the future of theatrical.

As you know, if you have been reading me, I am a believer in theatrical and that 90% of the weakness in theatrical right now is lack of films released and supported by the studios.

But every individual choice… every individual movie has its own rules beyond the norms.

Halloween Ends is the third film of a trilogy, albeit a trilogy that is based on a classic, 44-year-old franchise. Trilogies are a weird thing.

The Lord of the Rings movies, the 3rd film was the biggest opening of the trilogy.
The Hobbit movies, the 3rd film has the worst opening of the 3.
Spider-Man, the 1st Trilogy, the 2nd film opening dipped, but the 3rd was the biggest opener.
The Amazing Spiderman only went 2 films, the 2nd film opened 50% better than the 1st film… but it was still seen as a disappointment.
Spider-Man Home Trilogy, a 2nd film dip followed by the 3rd film opening to more than double the 1st.
Star Wars 1-3, $65m, $80m, $108m
Star Wars 7-9, $248m, $220m, $177m

The first Star Wars movies, which are technically 4-6, are from another box office planet than the others. In the 1970s, Star Wars film were considered massively wide, ground-breaking releases. In the first year of Star Wars, it was never on as many as 1100 screens. The Empire Strikes Back got to almost 1200 screens. Return of the Jedi got to just under 1800 screens.

Jaws, in 1975, was seen as the movie that changed the movie business forever… never got to 700 screens on its first release. It opened to $7 million, which was still better than Bros. (I am so sorry for writing that… but I didn’t erase it either…) Jaws 2 (1978) opened to $9.9 million. And Jaws 3-D (1983) launched with $13.4 million. Why do these numbers mean about this trilogy? Nothing. The business model evolved, year by year.

There aren’t that many franchise trilogies, though they were popular for a while. Of course we all remember 2007’s trio of May trilogy releases. The aforementioned Spider-Man III, the 3rd Shrek - $42m, $108m, $122m - and the last good Pirates of the Caribbean, which rolled out with $47m, $136m, and $115m.

So… what do we take away from Halloween Ends opening to $41 million, following the first film of this trilogy, Halloween, opening to $76 million in 2018, before Peacock existed. Halloween Kills opening to $49 million in 2021, just as the COVID paralysis was letting up and going day-n-date on Peacock, then with an estimated 9 million paying users (which is required to get day-n-date titles)? And now, with an estimated 15 million paid Peacock subscribers?