THB #235: 22 Weeks To Oscar - 10 Challenges in '22

This could be a very boring Oscar season. But in every boring Oscar season, there are some challenges that keep things interesting until the end.

Here are 10 challenges that consultants and distributors and personals (oh my!) have ahead of them this season that may or may not bear fruit… in no particular order.

Ana de Armas for Best Actress - Netflix has to be bouncing back and forth on this one. The raves for her performance, even from critics who dislike the film, are pretty unanimous. Some may bring up the occasional accent slip (I don’t recall any), but the general sense is that she offers up a wide-open emotional version of Norma Jeane/Marilyn. This is exactly what Academy voters tend to fall for, hard.

On the other hand, she is naked a lot… she does the now-classic SkiNetFlix oral sex simulation for an extended period surpassing 365 Days… she takes a lot of abuse with wide eyes and little response… so many “Daddy”s… and many people hate the movie.

It’s not a stretch to get to 5 Best Actress nominees before including this work by De Armas. But it also feels like the door could open. It would be unlike Netflix to give up on a potential nomination. But there will be as much pushback against this as there are people who would be willing to vote for her.

RRR for Best Picture - Interestingly, this will not be a Netflix effort... but an effort will be made nonetheless. The streamer doesn’t own the movie in any way. They just did domestic streaming distribution. DVV Entertainment has a film that’s done over $100 million worldwide and an intense, loyal fan base in America. It’s a hard, hard get… but Parasite has opened a door that a lot of people want to try to go through now.

Armageddon Time for Best Picture - James Gray is film critic cult director. Movie after movie, critics has loved Gray in a way that audiences simply haven’t. His highest domestic grosser to date was Ad Astra, a thinker’s sci-fi movie with Brad Pitt in the lead. $50 million.

But Armageddon Time is a basic period drama with Anne Hathaway, Succession’s Jeremy Strong, and Anthony Hopkins in a very charming turn as the highly opinionated grandfather. I don’t know how commercial it will be, but even though 4 of his films are New York films that he seems to have personal insight into, this seems to be easily his most personal film… and the most accessible.

The 800 lb gorilla in the room is The Fabelmans, which is also a personal period-piece story from a well-loved filmmaker. The 800 lbs is that Spielberg is that director and the film has gotten pretty much universal raves from those who have seen it.

So how do you overcome a nice Jewish boy telling his story like Spielberg if you are a nice Jewish boy telling his story who has never been nominated for an Oscar? I don’t know that you do. But this movie feels so right for so many people. You just don’t see many years when The Academy ends up nominated the same “kind of picture” in the same season. Rare.

Moonage Daydream for Best Documentary - This is one of my favorite films of this year or most others. It is compelling, comprehensive, deeply artistic, and illuminates one of the great artists of the last 70 years.

But it’s a documentary. But it’s all “found footage.” But it’s genius. But it’s exactly the kind of film the Documentary Branch puts on the “short list” but then doesn’t nominate.

I don’t know that I have advice for Brett Morgan or Neon on getting this camel through the eye of the needle. Winning Best Documentary is sometimes easier than getting nominated… which I am convinced, after years of witnessing the process, is why some films don’t get nominated, because they would be likely to win over others.