We’re getting down to it. There are just 5 awards-consequential movies left to be seen, rolling out fast now.
Being the Ricardos, Don’t Look Up, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story
Amazon, Netflix, MGM, Disney/Searchlight, Disney/Fox
The problem is, 2 or 3 of those 5 could end up with giant footprints in the Oscar season. The other problem is, no one really knows which ones those are.
Wait. There are more problems.
Getting to 10 Best Picture nominees feels like it will be work this year.
There are a lot of good movies out there, but in the hard reality of voters actually connecting with the work, the only group that seems clear on any frontrunners are media that really aren’t thinking too hard.
I’m going to lay these predictions out in A, B, and C groups. I expect the A list to be nominated. I think the B list is not unrealistic, but could get knocked of the perch pretty easily. And the C-List is there to join the perch if something falls.
I don’t believe that Academy voters tend to pick and choose movies with a purpose of spreading out the love… commercial, challenging, important, etc. I believe they pick what they really like, usually. In a season this thin on movies and intense convictions, almost anything could happen. But, almost always, it turns out to be less unexpected and adventurous than seems most exciting. So… we shall see…
My current guess (alphabetical and grouped):
A- List
Belfast
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
B-List
Don’t Look Up
The French Dispatch
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
Spencer
In the B List, in other years, a movie like Nightmare Alley or Don’t Look Up would seem less likely, as they are more commercial than awards-y. Spencer is high art. The French Dispatch and House of Gucci are from great, celebrated directors who didn’t deliver their most “accessible” films this year.
C-List
Being the Ricardos
C'mon C'mon
CODA
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Tragedy of Macbeth
BEST ACTRESS
Kristen Stewart will be nominated for Spencer. She won’t win.
Lady Gaga will be nominated for House of Gucci. She might win.
Everything else is a toss-up or one of the unseen.
Jessica Chastain is always great. But no one loved The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Penelope Cruz has been out of the game for a while and Parallel Mothers isn’t one of Almodovar’s most loved films. Have they had enough Frances McDormand? Jennifer Hudson can still sing and still can’t really act. CODA hasn’t taken grip of much. Olivia Colman is always wonderful but Netflix is sitting on The Lost Daughter like an egg that won’t hatch. I would think Tessa Thompson would have a shot if the film was being sold like she did.
Final 5
People are wondering why Nicole Kidman isn’t much seen in the Being The Ricardos trailer and why Amazon is doing a week in theaters before going to the stream. Alana Haim is an acting unknown and will they run her in Supporting instead? Rachel Zegler has a lot to carry if she is to get nominated for the ingenue role in West Side Story. Jennifer Lawrence returns in Don’t Look Up but Netflix is being awfully precious about the film. Never bet against Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley).
My current guess (alphabetical): Cate Blanchett, Lady Gaga, Alana Haim, Nicole Kidman, Kristen Stewart
BEST ACTOR
Will Smith and Benedict Cumberbatch will be nominated. Either could end up winning.
After that, same as the ladies.
Denzel is Denzel, but MacBeth is MacBeth. Peter Dinklage is perfection as Cyrano, but the movie doesn’t quite work. Joaquin Phoenix is in the pocket in C’Mon C’Mon, but it’s not an asking-for-it role and he won’t be out asking for it. Clifton Collins, Jr is great in Jockey, but does Apple really know how to do this? Adam Driver is the weakest part of the House of Gucci cast.
Final 5
Javier Bardem is always compelling and I can’t wait to be surprised by his work in Being The Ricardos. Leo doing comedy in a drama works a lot better than Leo doing comedy. Cooper Hoffman is Phil Hoffman’s son and… who knows? Bradley Cooper is great, but is this the role to get another nomination? Ansel Elgort getting nominated might be the worst thing to happen to West Side Story’s Oscar chances.
My current guess (alphabetical): Bendict Cumberbatch, Peter Dinklage, Cooper Hoffman, Will Smith, Denzel Washington
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jared Leto in House of Gucci is the only sure nominee and the closest thing we have to a frontrunner.
Other potential nominees are paired…
Belfast - The kid lead of the movie, Jude Hill, and his grandfather, Ciaran Hinds
The French Dispatch - In a movie of moments, Jeffrey Wright as a version of James Baldwin and Benicio Del Toro, in all his grunting glory as a prisoner/artist
House of Gucci - Al Pacino, as Aldo, could join Leto, who plays his son.
Power of the Dog - Jesse Plemmons and Kodi Smit-McPhee could come along with the film
Final 5
I have no idea if J.K. Simmons has the big speech as Bill Frawley/Fred that could make one of all of our favorite actors a nominee. Mark Rylance can shine in a big comedy that doesn’t otherwise hit it out of the park, so maybe (and Jonah Hill isn’t to be triffled with). Does Bradley Cooper or Sean Penn get enough to do to get nominated for Licorice Pizza? Dafoe is Dafoe.
My current guess (alphabetical): Jared Leto, Licorice Someone (Cooper or Penn), Mark Rylance, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jeffrey Wright
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This may be the most competitive acting category this year. But also the hardest to lock down.
I don’t really believe there is a sure bet for a nomination in this category. Closest is probably Caitriona Balfe in Belfast. Coming in close behind that is Kirsten Dunst in Power of the Dog, which is really a lead performance.
After that, hold your hat!
Aunjanue Ellis has a lot of love for King Richard as The Queen. Ruth Negga is loved in town and brings power to Passing, though they have a lot of selling to do still. Judi Dench doesn’t have a lot to do in Belfast, but she has a few moments and watching her aging face in beautiful black and white is compelling and there ain’t nothing like a Dame.
Sally Hawkins is the best thing in Spencer… but will enough people notice? Sally is a really lovely person, but not an aggressive campaigner. Marlee Matlin is Marlee Matlin and maybe that is a hook that can get her in for a solid, if unspectacular performance in CODA, a film that is special.
I would LOVE to see nomination runs for Gaby Hoffmann (C’Mon C’Mon), Diana Rigg (her final performance in Last Night in Soho), and Alicia Vikander (Blue Bayou), returning to the screen with all the technical skill she always displayed and a new layer of relaxation that could make her a much bigger star in the years to come.
Final 5
Ariana DeBose is in the ultimate awards role of Anita in West Side Story. It’s a big, fat softball across the middle of the plate for an extremely talented actress.
Of course, there is an Oscar winner for Anita… Rita Moreno… who fills the reconsidered Doc role in WSS. So there is always that possibility.
Cate Blanchett is in 2 supporting roles that could mine gold, in Nightmare Alley and Don’t Look Up. But I’ve already predicted that she might get nominated in Lead for Nightmare Alley. She could go both ways or neither way or Supporting for Nightmare or, or, or…
Never sleep on Meryl Streep, who is Supporting in Don’t Look Up.
And I would love to see Alia Shawkat have enough to do as I Love Lucy writer Madelyn Pugh to get a nomination. She is well-loved in Hollywood’s younger set. It would be a surprise, but a nice one.
My current guess (alphabetical): Caitriona Balfe, Ariana DeBose, Judi Dench, Kirsten Dunst, Aunjanue Ellis
And with that, my friends, have a lovely weekend and go to the movies.
Until Monday…
THB #23: 21 Weeks To Oscar & The Final 5