THB #216: Disney's World of Content Release

It’s been a busy 2nd week of September at Disney.

Disney+ Day was yesterday, the 8th.

They have the D23 convention through the weekend, Friday - Saturday.

Today, 2 new direct-to-Disney+ movie sequels that are focused on girls/women were released, plus The Little Mermaid teaser for 2023.

Between yesterday and today, the studio has released 2 brand new movies and one remake:
Pinocchio ($35m), direct to Disney+
Barbarian ($4.5m), theatrical, 2200 screens
Brahmāstra: Part One – Shiva ($50m), theatrical, 750 screens

And coming in 11 days, a new sitcom hits Hulu that is great, but will be kept from being a game-changer for streaming because of its short order for Season 1.

That’s a lot going on at a moment when not a lot (aside from festivals) is going on.

But what is uncomfortable for me is that almost every choice, aside from holding D23, seems from this perspective to be mistaken in concept.

The next family release (Lyle, Lyle Crocodile) is on October 7. After that, Black Adam on October 21st (borderline family) and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever on the November 11.

Disney is choosing to dump Pinocchio and Halloween-themed Hocus Pocus 2 within that window and Disenchanted, the sequel to the $128 million domestic/$340 million worldwide hit, Enchanted, being released on Disney+ on the same week as the original.

Hocus Pocus was only a $44 million domestic hit, but it should now sell as multi-generational family fun.

Bob Zemeckis and Chris Weitz’s version of Pinocchio, combining live action and 3D CG, has some changes that I don’t love. But the wave of negative reviews are overstated and about the Disney habit of doing live remakes more than the movie itself. There is some truly beautiful work here. Most of the new songs and added characters flop. But I love the new number performed by Luke Evans as the Coachman, “Peer Pressure,” which is a wholly new conceit of convincing Pinocchio to go to Pleasure Island. But why are there girls now being dragged to Pleasure Island? Is it equality to be wild and be turned into a jackass?

Regardless, would I be much happier to see this visual feast on a movie screen? Yes. And would it easily gross $100 million-plus domestically ($350m worldwide), like the equally (more) problematic Dumbo? Yes. Would it be of more value to Disney+ coming off of a theatrcial? Yes.

Would a late September theatrical for Hocus Pocus II find an audience and be of even more value going to D+ at the end of October, for Halloween? Yeah!

Is there any reason why the female-unfriendly movie line-up in the next 3 months pay off for Disenchanted, pushing Black Panther: Wakanda Forever to Nov 4 (where is will open like a nuclear blast, as it would on any date on the calendar), Disenchanted to the 18th and leaving Strange World on the 23th would not pay off for the studio at every level? No.

Should it concern us that the movies Disney will not take any risks on (Encanto, Turning Red, Pinocchio, Hocus Pocus, Disenchanted) are, in all but the case of Pinocchio, led by female characters? Are they afraid of marketing these movies? Do they think the female audience will not show up in theaters? Do they think they will sell a single D+ subscription to someone new by shoving Pinocchio on there on September 8?

Then we come back to this weekend, in which the studio is releasing 2 movies that are really quite good and completely capable of cult status and overperformance in theaters.

While Disney is pushing out their BTS concert movie - another film that could have made money in theaters and certainly should be in IMAX and other premium theaters - don’t the see the potential of that same audience getting excited about a Bollywood musical combined with a Marvel movie, which is what Brahmāstra: Part One – Shiva is? No streamer has a greater motivation to find an audience for Bollywood cinema in America and everywhere else Disney+ shows outside of India than Disney, which acquired Indian premium-streamer, Star, in the Fox deal. So why throw this away?

The film was screened once, as far as I know, and the embargo was set for yesterday, a day before release. It seems the studio is just hoping that the domestic market for Bollywood, good for $5 million - $20 million in ticket sales, will just show up as they do regularly. But where is the ambition? Why aren’t they pushing for more?

Likewise on Barbarian. They have done some decent work on publicity for this movie, but very light on marketing dollars, especially considering that the movie has tested through the roof with thriller/horror hands… so while it may well open to $10 million and end up doing $20 million domestic, doubling those numbers in a quiet market would not be shocking at all.

And in a weird twist, I hope they get the film on Hulu before the end of October to find the Halloween audience.

It’s not that they are doing nothing. It’s that they are acting in a passive way on a broad swath of their films, which is not ideal for their bottom line or their streaming services or the industry.

Finally, Steven Levitan’s Reboot is coming to Hulu on the 20th and it is an absolute home run. It ain’t Modern Family, but it’s a dysfunctional show business family on a network/streamer where language and all kinds of funny perversity is on the table. If you are wondering when you will see Judy Greer topless, don’t wonder… it happens before the first commercial (or commercial-free) break.

The show evolves through its first season of 10 episodes, as most do, but it is dead funny, perfectly cast, and a pleasure, pushing the joke from the woke, from start to end.

So what’s my problem?

Around Episode 3, I started thinking how Reboot could be streaming’s first real network-style sitcom classic. And I’m not comparing it to Ted Lasso or Only Murders In The Building or Reservation Dogs, etc. Those shows have a different energy. The first two really embrace the 10-ish episode season structure of British TV, telling a specific story in the course of a season. R-Dogs is, like the greats Better Things and Atlanta, is a series of stories that are somewhat connected to an undercurrent story in a season. Reboot is like watching All In The Family or Seinfeld or Modern Family… A + B story, mostly complete within itself, easily re-consumable like comedy popcorn.

But here’s the problem… 10 episodes. And then, what, a 6 month wait? A year?

If you look at the big streaming hits from network television that keep on delivering, year in and year out, they have enough episodes to bathe in. Seinfeld (173 episodes), The Office (188), Friends (235). None of these shows went 10 seasons.

Grace & Frankie is the show with the most “weekly series” episodes on Netflix… 94.

It’s just not the same relationship.

Maybe Reboot isn’t a premise for 200 episodes. But it has a lot better chance of being one of those shows where you watch whatever episode comes up at whatever time if it has 40 episodes in its first 2 seasons than 20.

It’s like eating popcorn at the movie vs eating candy. You love both, but one you shovel in your mouth and the other one you are more likely to eat piece by piece. Just different.

Streaming needs more shows that you can eat like popcorn. This is one of those. It doesn’t mean that I wouldn’t love more episodes of my favorite series. But to me, this is a game changer. This is the kind of show where you could create your own The Office.

Obviously, content is coming from all directions at Disney. Hulu and Disney Theatrical are not the same. But there is a content guru, so I expect they should think it all through.

The idea of making these choices, even after production, makes sense to me. It’s kist that the decisions being made - aside from “release the Marvel movies!” - seem uninspired, lacking in risk, and often, just plain wrong.

Millions of dollars left on the table are millions of dollars left on the table. But it is also about how you built value for a streaming brand. And sometimes, it is delivering content in a way that takes your audience somewhere they haven’t been… like watching a sitcom like we have watched them on networks. I was going to be a smart aleck and say “like we are watching Abbott Elementary… which is made by Warners and Disney,” but they only did 13 episodes for ABC this last year.

For Year 2 - launching on ABC on September 21 - they ordered 22… like people who want a forever hit.

Until tomorrow...