There is no point in waiting for Sunday Estimates to take a look at this terrible box office weekend.
First, allow me to point out that using Halloween as an excuse is utter bullshit. Too harsh a word? Sorry. But the last time Halloween fell on a weekend was in 2015 and yes, there was an weekend total dip that week too. But not because of Halloween. The Top 4 movies all dipped less than 37%. The top movie, The Martian, dipped just 26% in its FIFTH weekend of release. The four new movies that weekend together totalled just over $10 million for the weekend. And that was with Halloween on Saturday night.
This weekend, @awardstony has estimates of a 62% drop for Dune and a 44% drop for Halloween Kills. There’s your dip. Doesn’t have anything to do with Halloween… on a Sunday.
This is one of those moments where the industry should be paying the most attention, because this reads like a textbook.
Dune opened last weekend to $41 million, which was less than any of the top movies that opened in the previous 3 weekends in a row. But Warner Bros. spun it as a big win and got endless media praise and talk about the movie and how great it looked on a big screen, etc, etc, etc. Anthony projects it off 62% for its second weekend.
Halloween Kills opened two weekends ago to $49 million, which was less than either of the top movies that opened the previous 2 weekends in a row. But it was a dirt cheap production and part of a long chain of IP, so the positive spin was merited. But in its second weekend, it dipped 71%. And this weekend, it is projected to dip another 40% (a number I suspect is 5% generous and that the film will end up in #3 slot, not #2).
Now what about the 2 films that opened without any day-n-date availability?
Venom: There Will Be Carnage opened to $90 million, dropped 65%, then dropped 48%, then 44%, and is projected to drop 40% this weekend, still generating $5.6m domestic theatrical in weekend 5.
No Time To Die opened to a $55m 3-day, dropped 57%, then dropped 49%, and is projected to drop 37% this weekend, still generating $7.4m domestic theatrical in weekend 4.
Halloween Kills may just kiss $100 million domestic. Dune is very unlikely to do so. Venom went into the weekend at $185m domestic and will likely crawl its way to $200m. Bond hit the weekend at $126m and will likely get close to $150m domestic.
It’s not shocking that next weekend, after Halloween, Halloween Kills will likely fall behind Bond and Venom. But the weekend after that, Dune likely will too. And I will point out again… Dune has had every kind of hype and press and praise and “see it on a big screen.”
We will never really know what kind of business Dune would have done domestically if it were not for the HBO Max day-n-date game. International will be underwhelming too, though at this moment, it seems international is returning slower than domestic. The 25% Off Rule for domestic against pre-COVID seems pretty reasonable. Internationally, it is more. And China is a wildcard that can manage big internal grosses but hasn’t really come anywhere close to returning for Hollywood.
After that top tier, the top new movie is My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission. Funamation opened Demon Slayer: Mugen Train to almost triple that domestically last year, during COVID.
Last Night in Soho and Antlers are both opening just over $4 million. Antlers was a bit of a dump, but I think Focus marketing kinda got caught thinking that Anna Taylor-Joy could now open a movie after The Queen’s Gambit and forgot to sell the movie itself. I think Thomasin McKenzie is going to grow into stardom too… but is not identifiable now. But how many people realize that this is Diana Rigg’s last movie or that it co-stars 60s Brit icons Rita Tushingham and Terence Stamp? The sell was as confusing as the movie sometimes is (though it has the length of a movie to refocus and clarify).
The French Dispatch expanded to 15x last weekend’s screen count and will more than double its weekend gross, just under $5m domestic total-thru-Sunday and heading towards a domestic total in the low-to-mid teens. Again… on a personal note… love the movie… uber Wes… truly a work of art.
The weekend total for all domestic theatrical releases, which dropped under $100m last weekend for the first time in 4 weekends, will drop significantly lower this weekend. Perhaps as low as $65 million after being at $96 million last weekend. Eternals, unlikely to be much affected by the soft to brutal reviews, will likely have to open over $55 million for the overall box office to get close to the $100m weekend mark again, a level that is the standard for a healthy box office domestically.
Until Monday…
THB #19: Why This Weekend's Box Office Sucks