THB # 179: Do Count Your Minions Before They Hatch

The fog we are coming out of in the film/tv industry is the one where we convince ourselves that you can minimize risk and still mine massively profitable television shows and movies.

It’s becoming clearer and clearer that the last 7 years of Netflix as The King of Streaming and legacy media companies chasing the Wall Street success of Netflix is very much like the DVD bubble of the early 2000s… the difference being that the DVD Gold Rush had a very quick turn from investment to cash, whereas streaming is, with the exception of Netflix, a replacement business that is literally never going to equal the domestic profitability of legacy revenues during the lifetime of anyone reading this.

Allow me to simplify that mush… Streaming won’t generate significant profits for anyone until they are streaming for at least 7 or 8 years and those profits will not match, for legacy companies, profits from what…