THB #153: The Day Before Disney Day
Yes, ladies and gents, Disney’s quarterly is coming tomorrow. I don’t expect anything like the drama around Netflix’s quarterly, so I plan on writing about it tomorrow and then moving on to my Top Gun Maverick review on Thursday.
Last quarter was the quarter when Disney demoted theatrical to “Content Sales/Licensing and Other” on their filings. That section will likely drop this quarter, as Disney had only one release in the 3 months of the quarter, 20th’s Death on the Nile. Zero committment to non Marvel/Star Wars films and a small percentage of Pixar. Don’t believe otherwise, no matter how well Dr. Strange 2 opened.
Here is what revenues looked like. Linear is ABC and the cable nets. Direct-To-Consumer is Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+.
I have simplified the Q1 Subscriber and Average Revenue Per Unit numbers into this chart, so you can deconstruct the good and bad for Disney as numbers roll out. (I’ll be in a screening when the numbers land.)
“Subscribers to the SVOD Bundle are counted as a paid subscriber for each service included in the SVOD Bundle”
It would be great to have the bundle number made clear. But alas…
Disney offered it as 129.8 million D+ subs, 21.3 million ESPN+ subs, and 45.3 million Hulu subs. Figure that of that somewhat manipulative total of 196 million Disney streaming subscribers are about 20 million Bundle subscribers and that 45.9 million of those D+ subs are grossing just $1.03.
The guessers have Disney+ sub growth at 5.4 million. We’ll see.
But remember, Disney didn’t miss on its projections last quarter and is still $40 off the price per share from the day of their Q1 release, from $147.23 to $107.68 at close Tuesday night (5/10/22). $24 of that drop has come since the Netflix fall on April 19 (a day that will live in infamy).
As I said from the top… I don’t expect any real surprises tomorrow. But now you are - well, some of you are - a little better prepared to be a know-it-all when details start hitting the wires.