THB #123: Netflix Day, 1 of 4

Hello… I’ve decided to cover the Netflix release in 4 brief newsletter releases today. It’s 8:45a here in L.A. now. This is the set-up. Expect another newsletter when the earnings announcement is dropped, around 1:30p, with the actual numbers and a little analysis. A third after the earnings call, letting you know what was said and how I took it. And then a wrap up sometime in the early L.A. evening, when there is some perspective beyond the insta-takes.

Then we can stop discussing Netflix for at least a few days.

As you know from yesterday’s newsletter, I expect a wild overreaction by media and the market to whatever happens. That is the Netflix norm.

What I didn’t really expect was this…

That’s just a few minutes before I started writing this… people are betting, it seems, that every talking head is wrong about what is 5 hours from dropping and that Netflix will actually have a positive turn.

Oy.

Last quarter, an 111 point drop the day after the report. And that’s 47 points higher than where the stock is today.

I don‘t expect anything like that kind of dive later today. But up 13%? No.

The quarterly report before January’s traumatic one (10/19/21), the stock did go up… not 13% the next day, but up from 639 to an all-time high of 692 (8% up). I don’t see that happening again… even if the report is better than the harshest naysayers. The stock had already dropped to $587 the day before the last quarterly. And a painful 28% down since.

And as I write, the price keeps going up.

Note that on the last quarterly release day, the stock went up 1% before it went back to the opening bell price and then, the drop.

So what does it mean? True believers? Suicidal speculators?

Wall Street!!!

Until a few hours from now…