THB #595: 23W2O - Part 3: The New Oscar Norm?
Everyone loves a comeback story. So here is a challenging one…
Eleven years ago, The Academy Awards Show, The Oscars, enjoyed it’s 2nd year in a row of 40 million viewers… 40.4 million in 2013 and 43.7 in 2014. The show was used to being around, often above, that 40 million domestic viewer mark. Since Wikipedia started marking the annual audience count in 1986 (Out of Africa) until 11 years ago in 2014 (12 Years A Slave) - 29 years - the audience hit 40 million viewers 22 times.
It hasn’t been there since.
But it’s worse than that.
37.3 million in 2015, 34.4 million in 2016, and 33 million in 2017.
The show hasn’t been over 30 million since then. (It did hit 30m one last time in 2019).
Keep in mind, the worst number between 1986 and 2018 - 33 years! - had been 32 million for the No Country For Old Men year.
So here is what we have seen in the last 10 years. 5 years between 26.6 and 37.3 million viewers followed by 5 straight years under 25 million viewers.
Last year, the ratings improved… to the 4th worst ratings ever. And if they improve again by the same amount in March 2025, we will celebrate the 5th worst ratings ever.
I’m not writing this because I dislike The Oscars or the leadership at The Academy. I am writing this because pretending it hasn’t happened is a guarantee that it will never get any better.
The article, about a speaking event Mr. Kramer participated in, continues on to explain that The Academy understands that it needs to diversify its revenue streams. The Academy generates a couple hundred million a year (out of which production costs for Oscar come) and is already busy with a new post-museum capital campaign, looking to raise $500 million in donations with a target of 2028. God knows what they are going to do with that money. But supporters of AMPAS seem to be willing to donate about $100 million a year on average, having done so for the museum as well.
Kramer also said: ““We have to acknowledge that people are engaging with movies in different ways right now. Movies are being made and movies are being consumed, and that’s what’s important to the Academy. But in all of this, these are shared, communal experiences. Nothing replicates being in a space together and engaging with art.”
Well… firstly… no.. people are not actually engaging with movies in different ways right now… at least, not in theaters. Sound is better. People are choosing Premium screens more. Seats are bigger and softer. But it is basically the same experience. When they get to your television, yes, things have changed a lot.
But aside from a truly wonderful programming effort at the Academy Museum Theater, what is The Academy doing to push movies in theaters? What is The Academy doing to push the “shared communal experience?”
Almost $10 million a year of The Academy’s income is from entry fees for the membership’s screening app. 500 movies a year at $20k a pop. A great resource for Academy members. But not an encouragement to get off of your couch and see a movie in a theater.
As I have written repeatedly, The Academy has not changed its rules in any significant way to emphasize theatrical release for Oscar movies, for their members or the broader audience. Every movie that wants to compete for Best Picture still has to jump through the theatrical hoop… but the cost of doing so is about 1 or 2 covers of Variety…. a drop in the marketing bucket.
By the time the final voting for Oscar starts on February 11, 2025, the only potential Best Picture nominee that is likely not to be available on your civilian couch at home will be Mustafa: The Lion King. But don’t worry for Academy members… they will surely have it on their TVs before New Year’s Day.
The Academy Board of Governors is loaded with some of the smartest people who ever made or sold a movie. So why are they still taking such a passive posture when the basement is flooded and the water is about to start leaking onto the first floor?
Even more… have they all forgotten what the point of Oscar was from the start? TO PROMOTE MOVIES & MOVIE STARS!!!!
The Academy has abandoned this purpose is so many ways. Not for the circle inside and around The Academy. It’s a great 6 month-a-year party for all of them… all of us who get to dance in their light.
The Academy has made a fortune on The Oscars over the decades and now, smartly, Bill Kramer is preparing for the future in which The Oscars net them $40 million a year instead of $80 million. Because it’s coming. But a big part of why it is coming is that the show is stuck in the mud in all the wrong ways… even with some smart changes, strong years, some good shows… The Academy has refused to seriously consider what The Oscars are in 2024 and onward.
And the media… lord, the media… is even more unwilling to even THINK about real changes and the future.
I have now spend 20 years arguing about The Death Of The Movies. It was bullshit in 2005 and it’s bullshit today. But The Media won’t get off of it. The sky is always falling. The Oscars - which they all want their access to - is barely a story, aside from some reviews and the ratings release that are written about and buried by the close of business on the Tuesday after the Oscar show.
So explain to me again how The Movie Business is in more trouble than The Oscars…
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to The Hot Button to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.