THB #589: Did Alien Romulus Open Well?
Wow! Must have been a fantastic opening for Alien: Romulus!!!
Uh… not so much.
It’s hardly a disaster either.
But I still feel compelled to repeat over and over and over again in this space that reality is what the goal must be for how media covers the industry. I don’t expect hard hitting exposes… but just reality.
The black space in the graphic above is for The Hollywood Reporter, whose only coverage of the weekend box office is in the, currently, 15th spot in the “Latest News” sidebar. I am both very sad for the people who are getting laid off by the botoxed lady of industry trade-ism and smugly conscious that the Penske gravy boat may be getting a little smaller. (Rick Ellis, who has been all over THR’s slow, but steady transition wrote about how after a decade of the trades bending to publicists’ wills, some spenders seem to be going more internal and less interested in spending on publicity.)
But I digress…
I don’t really care who guesses best. I think I have made that endlessly clear on here. But these headlines - and some of what is written in the pieces - suggest that Disney knew this opening was going to underwhelm after the movie about a pretty woman choosing an abusive brain surgeon sporting a 12-pack as a partner in spite of being told he was a shithead by his sister - her best friend - and finally getting out of the cycle of violence when he behaves like a serial killer opened to 50 fucking million last weekend… and Disney spent the weekend figuring out good angles for the trades to lead with and put in headlines… you know, publicity.
Here are the simple realities.
This $41.5m launch is, in fact, the 2nd best Alien opening ever.
Of the 3 modern-box-office-era Alien films, it is hanging right between Prometheus ($51m) and Alien: Covenant ($36m)
This opening sets A:R as the summer 2024 major Hollywood release with the highest percentage of international gross at 61.6%. Inside Out 2 is the only other of these films at or over 60% with 60.5%. Assuming this continues to be the case, it assures that this film will be profitable. This is good.
This just is the 9th best opening of the summer after a May that was uniquely acrid. It is cradled almost exactly evenly between It Ends With Us ($50m) and IF ($33.7m). That makes it the weakest of the perceived successes or the strongest of the perceived failures, depending on your perspective.
This film marks the end of the major summer releases and a run of weekends in which there was positive surprise after positive surprise with a small thud. July 3 - Despicable Me 4 has the #2 Despicable Me opening ever and grows to within 10% of any Despicable/Minions film domestically but like most films now, underperforms internationally, July 12 - Longlegs success more an up than Fly Me To The Moon’s poor opening a down, July 19 - Twisters opens stronger than anticipated, July 26 - even with all the high expectations Deadpool & Wolverine tops them, August 2 - Trap is crap… one letdown, August 9 - It Ends With Us is chick flick Longlegs, and now August 16, Alien: Romulus… meh.
Now allow me to emphasize again… Alien: Romulus is delivering internationally, more so (so far) than any other summer movie. This matters. And the domestic should be able to match or top the post-millennium Alien titles. Prometheus did 68.6% of its business overseas. If Romulus is at 62% international and does $140 million domestic, that projects (very roughly) to a $400 million worldwide gross. Prometheus is the highest Alien grosser at $403 million. So you have to take the win.
But anyone who tells you that the enthusiasm around this title and the recent trajectory of this summer didn’t have a number starting with 5 or better dancing in Disney heads is bullshitting you.
The big picture comp for me is last summer’s Fast X. It grossed $705 million worldwide. But that was the “worst” performance for the franchise since 2011’s Fast Five, which is 1 after they rebooted the franchise with Fast & Furious in 2009. Topping X was F9, which was released in COVID 2021.
So, their F&F: Infinity War - loaded with every character and the most expensive film of the franchise to that date - underperformed. But it still did $705 million. You can’t call that a flop.
Romulus… with a reported $80m pricetag… is a success. But it is also a small disappointment. It wasn’t MORE. And we have been on a run of MORE.
By the way… I pretty much liked the campaign for Alien: Romulus. But I think the final one-sheet and outdoor killed their momentum a bit, at least domestically.
The potential audience doesn’t know the character being face-hugged. And it is an image of a woman being assaulted and seemingly losing the fight. No doubt, the geek world probably loved this. But the energy of the moment is women who fight and might win, not women in trouble. This is a woman-led franchise. Fight the big head power!
Finally… one of the problems I have with overhyping this opening this weekend is that next weekend is coming. And the weekend after. And then, GIANT pressure of Beetlejuice Beetlejuice to turn the headlines back to positivity… which more and more of the town is beginning to see, after a moment of enthusiasm, as unlikely.
How will the media treat an opening that lands right between Dark Shadows ($30m) and Dumbo ($46m)? I would bet on “Burton’s biggest opening in over a decade (aside from the live-action remake of the Disney classic Dumbo, which was guaranteed to open).” Something like that.
Or alternately, it will do the $100 million-plus number that has been floating around and it will be positioned as saving the movie business… again.
After that, Speak No Evil is up to bat… then, Transformers One… then The Wild Robot. All three could be more muscular than they look from here. But how much so? And then the next sure thing, Joker: Folie à Deux, which will look to be Todd Phillips’ and October’s first $100 million opening weekend.
And if Joker 2 opens to “just” $85m… we can have this same conversation again. That would be a fantastic opening, especially in October. But context, context, context and reality, reality, reality.
Until tomorrow…